The behavior of the The interbank market in 2025 cannot be understood without looking at the whole of Finance systemOfficial interest rates, ECB liquidity, government debt, the stock market, bank credit, and, of course, foreign exchange. Throughout the year, central banks have continued to refine their policies, stock market indices have reached record highs, and the cost of money has entered a more benign phase, but one that still presents many challenges for businesses and households.
In this context, the interbank market has functioned as thermometer of trust between entities and barometer of expectations Regarding the upcoming decisions of the ECB and the Fed, extreme volatility in the foreign exchange market, doubts about global growth, and the burden of public debt have necessitated heightened caution in managing interest rate and exchange rate risks.
Money, interest rates and the role of the interbank market
If you look at the added photo, the The euro area's money supply (M3 aggregate) has moved much more moderately. In previous periods, the average variation from 2001 to 2022 was around 5,5%, while in 2023 it barely advanced by 0,1% and in 2024 it rebounded to 3,4%. This slowdown reflects the end of large liquidity injections and the shift towards a somewhat less expansionary monetary policy, although still accommodative in 2025.
At the heart of the interbank market is the 3-month interbank rateThe benchmark for interbank financing is a key reference point. Its historical average (2001-2022) stands at 1,2%, but after the cycle of monetary tightening and subsequent easing, it rose to 3,433% in 2023 and 3,572% in 2024. By 2025, with the ECB's rate cuts and the normalization of the yield curve, the November and December averages moderated to 2,041% and 2,051% respectively, consistent with an environment of official interest rates around 2%.
Something similar happens with the 12 month Euribor, the key indicator for variable-rate mortgagesIts long-term average is close to 1,4%, but in 2023 it climbed to 3,868% and in 2024 it eased to 3,274%. During 2025, the annual benchmark has been declining, registering an average of 2,217% in November and a slight rebound to 2,269% in December, in a context where the market had already priced in the fact that the ECB would not continue lowering rates at the same pace as at the beginning of the year.
On the long stretch of the curve, the 10-year government bonds remain at moderate levelsCompared to a historical average of 3%, the average return in 2023 was 3,4% and in 2024 it was also 3%. Performance in 2025 has been relatively stable, at 3,1% in November and 3,3% in December. This level is consistent with a scenario of controlled inflation, modest growth, and contained risk premiums within the eurozone.
Overall, the ECB has opted for a 2025 target. “vigilant pause” strategy after several rate cutsAfter up to eight consecutive cuts, the meeting on December 18 left all three official interest rates unchanged, marking the fourth such pause. The decision was practically priced in by the interbank market, which had already factored in the idea of a 2% deposit rate as a reasonable short-term benchmark.
This stance is also reflected in the OIS swap curve in euros: the The 12-month OIS yield has gone from trading at around 1,67% in mid-April to levels close to 1,95%. At the end of the year, anticipating that there will be no more immediate cuts and that, in the medium term, the debate on increases could even be opened in 2026-2027 if the economy holds up and underlying inflation resists falling further.
Financial markets: debt, stock market and derivatives activity
In the capital markets bloc, the Public debt contracting ratios show less dynamism than in previous yearsIn the spot Treasury bill market, the historical average turnover was 34,9, while in 2023 it fell to 26,91 and in 2024 to 18,1. In 2025, the data for October and November stand at 11,84 and 12,32, indicating a relatively moderate trading volume in proportion to the outstanding balance.
For government bonds and debentures, the The cash transaction ratio has also decreasedCompared to a 2001-2022 average of 22,1, it stood at 12,01 in 2023 and 11,9 in 2024, but in 2025 it falls to very low levels, with 2,26 in October and 1,54 in November. This slower movement is partly due to many investors consolidating their medium- and long-term positions, taking advantage of the returns achieved after the interest rate hike cycle.
In the short stretch, the Interest rates on Treasury bills with maturities of up to 3 months have turned downwards Regarding the 2023 peak: the historical reference was just 0,29%, compared to 3,15% in 2023 and 3,16% in 2024. In 2025, auctions and operations in the secondary market yield average rates of 1,92% in October and 1,99% in November, consistent with a more relaxed path of official rates.
In the long part, the The yield on 10-year bonds at auction has stabilized. around an average of 3,09% (2001-2022). In 2023 the figure was 3,55%, in 2024 it was 3,1%, and in 2025 levels close to 3,09% were observed in October and 3,20% in November. There are no signs of significant stress in sovereign debt, despite the high volume of issuances over the last decade.
Equities, for their part, have had a remarkable year. The combined capitalization of the Madrid Stock Exchange has maintained positive rates of change, with an average monthly growth of 1,1% in both 2023 and 2024. In 2025, the average monthly variation was 3,04% in October and 1,25% in November, following the upward trend of the main global indices.
Regarding stock market trading activity, the Contracted volume has been more erraticCompared to an average monthly variation of 2,3% between 2001 and 2022, 2023 saw a mere 0,2% increase, and 2024 registered a slight decrease of -0,2%. In 2025, the October figure shows a jump of 25,20%, while November corrects to -5,36%, reflecting the sensitivity of flows to specific instances of global volatility.
Stock market indices have soared: the The Madrid Stock Exchange General Index has risen from 927,57 points in 2023 to 1.137,34 in 2024. And in 2025 it hovers around 1.681 points in October and 1.707 at the end of December. The Ibex 35, meanwhile, has climbed from an average of 9.347 points in 2023 to over 11.595 in 2024, and in 2025 it stands at around 17.041 points in mid-December and 17.307 in the last data point of the year, marking historical highs around 17.000 points at the beginning of the analyzed trading week.
Internationally, the Nasdaq continues to break recordsFrom an average of 4.754 points in 2001-2022, it has risen to 12.970 in 2023, 19.310 in 2024 and is hovering around 23.057-23.419 points in 2025, which raises doubts about possible bubbles in certain segments, especially those related to technology and artificial intelligence.
The Ibex 35's P/E ratio – share price versus return on equity – remains at reasonable levels: the historical average is 15,6, 2023 closed at 27,5 and 2024 at 14,4. In 2025, the P/E ratio has settled around 19,8-19,9, reflecting a revaluation of share prices somewhat faster than the improvement in profitsbut without reaching the extremes of overvaluation seen in other markets.
In the area of corporate finance, the Short-term private debt of non-financial corporations has shown contained increasesCompared to an average variation of 1,1% in 2001-2022, it rose by 8% in 2023 and by 2,8% in 2024. In 2025, the outstanding balance increased by 3,44% in October, before registering a decrease of -2,35% in November, a sign that many companies have opted to extend maturities or reduce short-term financing needs.
In long-term private debt, the dynamics are even more contained: The historical average growth of the outstanding balance is 0,7%.However, in 2023 there was a drop of -5,7%, and in 2024 it remained practically stable (-0,1%). In 2025, quarterly variations are around 1,5% in October and 0,65% in November, consistent with a lower interest rate environment and some recovery in demand for long-term financing.
Regarding derivatives, the Trading in Ibex 35 futures has shown a very irregular patternAfter average growth of 0,3% from 2001 to 2022, prices jumped 34,5% in 2023 and then fell by 3,5% in 2024. Data from October and November for 2025 point to growth of 13,05% and declines of 6,11%, respectively, reflecting the sensitivity of markets to rapid changes in investor sentiment.
Financial options on Ibex 35 shares have also been subject to volatility: compared to an average growth of 16% in the long seriesIn 2023 they advanced by 41,8% and in 2024 by 4,2%. In 2025, activity plummeted by -45,9% in October before recovering strongly (+17,8%) in November, in line with the hedging and profit-taking movements associated with the index's rise.
Savings, debt and financial position of households and the economy
If we analyze macro-financing, the The net financial savings of the Spanish economy in relation to GDP have normalized into clearly positive territory.Compared to a slightly negative average (-0,5%) for 2008-2022, it reached 4,1% in 2023 and 4,9% in 2024. In 2025, the data for the first and second quarters stand at 4,9% and 4,6% of GDP respectively, indicating that the resident sectors as a whole accumulate more financial assets than they generate in liabilities.
In the case of homes and non-profit institutions serving homesNet financial savings have also seen a significant increase: compared to an average of 2,1% of GDP between 2008 and 2022, they reached 2,7% in 2023 and 4,5% in 2024. During 2025, the ratio stood at 3,7% in the first quarter and 3,3% in the second, reflecting prudent behavior by households in a context of interest rates that are still relatively high in recent historical terms.
On the liabilities side, the Total debt materialized in securities other than stocks and loans, in relation to GDP, remains below the peaks reached after the financial crisisThe average debt-to-GDP ratio for 2008-2022 was 278,7%, while in 2023 it fell to 253,6% and in 2024 to 249,7%. Similar levels are maintained in 2025: 249% in the first quarter and 249,8% in the second, indicating a degree of stabilization after years of deleveraging.
In the specific case of For households, financial debt is around 44% of GDPThis figure is significantly lower than the historical average of 62% (2008-2022). From 46,1% in 2023 and 43,7% in 2024, it falls to 43,4% and 44% in the first two quarters of 2025. Although a slight increase is observed in the second quarter, the debt position of households is now much more sustainable than before the housing crisis.
If we examine the financial balance of households in terms of assets, the Financial assets are growing at a reasonable rateCompared to an average quarterly variation of 1,1% in 2008-2022, increases reached 2,9% in 2023 and 2,1% in 2024. In 2025, quarterly growth is projected to be around 1,9% in the first quarter and 2,7% in the second, reflecting both new investments and portfolio appreciation due to positive market performance.
On the liabilities side, the household debt, including Mortgages, has left behind the intense contraction phaseThe historical average quarterly variation was -0,7%, but a slight increase (0,1%) is already observed in 2023 and 1,2% in 2024. The 2025 data show growth of 0,4% in the first quarter and 3% in the second, consistent with a somewhat more dynamic credit environment, especially in consumer finance and, to a lesser extent, in mortgages.
Evolution of the banking business and its relationship with the interbank market
As regards deposit-taking institutions, bank credit to the private sector has gone from many years of contraction to a phase of moderate but sustained growthCompared to an average monthly growth rate of 4,9% between 2001 and 2022, credit grew by -0,2% in 2023 (still in negative territory) and turned slightly positive in 2024 (0,09%). In 2025, the average monthly growth rate in September and October is around 0,1% and 0,5%, respectively, indicating that the supply of credit is improving, albeit without any significant increase.
On the contrary, Private sector deposits in banks, savings banks and credit unions have shown some weaknessAfter a historical average of 6% monthly growth, in 2023 they fell by -0,5% and in 2024 they barely increased by 0,39%. In the most recent data for 2025, September shows an increase of 0,4%, but October registers a decline of -0,7%, possibly linked to rotations towards other assets with better returns or to redemptions for consumption and real investment.
Banks have increased their exposure to fixed-income securities - securities other than shares and equity interests -These figures, which in the long-term series showed an average monthly growth of 8,3%, have increased by 0,1% in 2023 and 0,72% in 2024. Data for September and October of 2025 show variations of 2,3% and 0,4%, respectively. Equity and portfolio holdings have also advanced, with average monthly growth of around 0,4% in 2023, 0,25% in 2024, and values of 0,8% and 0,3% in September and October of 2025.
La The net position of credit institutions in the interbank system has consolidated in clearly positive territoryHistorically, this item—the difference between assets and liabilities relative to the credit system—showed a balance of -1,9% of total assets. However, following the ECB's large liquidity injections, the net position climbed to 5,9% in 2023 and to 7,24% in 2024. In 2025, the figure stands at around 6,5% in September and 6,1% in October, indicating that the sector as a whole maintains a comfortable liquidity position relative to the rest of the system.
Regarding the quality of the asset, the Non-performing loans continue to decreaseWith a historical average monthly variation of -0,4%, the decline in 2023 was -0,2% and in 2024 -0,65%. In 2025, the variations for September and October show decreases of -1,5% and -0,6% respectively, confirming the improvement in business and household delinquency rates within a reasonably resilient labor market.
Temporary asset transfers (repos) have grown strongly in recent years: compared to an average monthly variation of 2,1%, they increased by 1,9% in 2023 and by 3,65% in 2024. In 2025, this item increased by 2,9% in September, before falling by -4,1% in October, reflecting tactical adjustments by entities in their financing needs and liquidity management.
In terms of assets, the The net worth of deposit-taking institutions has grown much less than in the pastThe long-term average was around 6,3% per month, while growth was 0,5% in 2023 and 0,36% in 2024. Data for 2025 points to slight declines of -1% in September and -1,1% in October, possibly linked to valuation adjustments and earnings distributions.
Structure of the banking sector and financing of the Eurosystem
The map of the Spanish banking sector is much more concentrated today than it was two decades ago. The number of national deposit-taking institutions has fallen from an average of 166 in 2000-2022 to 109 in 2023108 in 2024 and 105 in September 2025. However, the presence of foreign entities operating in Spain remains, with a historical average of 76 and updated figures of 76 in 2023, 76 in 2024 and 78-79 in 2025, depending on the time of year.
In terms of installed capacity, the The number of employees in the banking sector has stabilized after years of adjustmentsThe average number of employees between 2000 and 2022 was over 221.000, but this fell to approximately 161.640 in 2023 and is projected to remain around 163.496 in 2024-2025. The number of branches has followed a similar trend: from an average of almost 34.700 branches in previous years, it has decreased to approximately 17.603 in 2023 and 17.168 in 2025.
La Appeal to the Eurosystem in the long term has been drastically reduced Following the end of the massive liquidity programs, the average amount of long-term operations across the eurozone was around €579.197 billion, but by 2023 it had already fallen to €457.994 billion and plummeted to €30.806 billion in 2024. Normalization continued in 2025, with a balance of €13.426 billion in June and €10.015 billion at the end of November.
For Spanish entities, the trend is similar: from an average of 103.699 million euros, the ECB long-term funding has fallen to €27.860 billion in 2023 and €8.217 billion in 2024In 2025, the appeal rebounded slightly to 8.811 billion in June and 11.145 billion in November, levels far below those of the TLTRO era but still indicating occasional dependence to adjust liquidity.
Main funding operations—regular short-term auctions—have almost disappeared as a significant source of liquidity for Spanish banks. From a historical average of €21.522 billion, they have fallen to €297 million in 2023, barely €6 million in 2024, and symbolic amounts (around €39 million in June and €24 million in November 2025), reflecting a banking system with ample structural liquidity.
It is also worth bearing in mind that since 2015 the ECB has reported its asset purchase programsIn November 2025, the stock of these programs reached almost 498.000 billion euros in Spain and around 3,8 trillion euros in the euro area as a whole, which continues to strongly influence interest rate levels and risk premiums.
Efficiency, productivity and profitability of the banking sector
Efficiency and productivity ratios reflect a banking sector that, after years of adjustment, has gained strength, although it faces some cost pressures. The ratio of operating expenses to ordinary margin – an indicator of operational efficiency – has remained within a reasonable range.Compared to an average of 47,5% in 2000-2022, it fell to 39,33% in 2023 and to 41,16% in 2024. In 2025, however, the second and third quarters show a slight deterioration to levels close to 39,95% and 51,1%, respectively, a sign that the drop in margins due to lower interest rates may again put pressure on the revenue/cost ratio.
Regarding productivity, the indicators of Deposits per employee and per office have improved significantlyThe deposit-to-employee ratio has risen from an average of around €5.082 to almost €12.993 in 2023 and €13.282 in 2024, reaching over €13.714 in the second quarter of 2025 and close to €14.252 in the third. In terms of deposits per branch, the jump is even greater: from an average of €34.005 to over €116.854 in 2023, €123.541 in 2024, and around €130.257–€135.730 in 2025, thanks to branch closures and business consolidation.
Network ratios show that the The physical structure of the banking sector has become thinner, but it is more intense in terms of activity.The average number of offices per entity is now around 93-95, compared to an average of over 171 offices during the 2000-2022 period. At the same time, there are about 9,5 employees per office, above the historical average of 6,38, indicating a larger average branch size.
In regulatory capital, the The equity of deposit-taking institutions has grown moderately and, more recently, has stabilized.The historical average monthly change in equity was 0,64%, but in 2023 growth rose to 1,6% and in 2024 to 1,8%. Data for 2025 point to a slight correction, with negative changes of approximately -0,07% in the second quarter and -1,1% in the third, influenced by dividend payments, share buybacks, and valuation movements.
In terms of profitability, the key indicators remain at comfortable levels. ROA (return on assets) is clearly above its historical average of 0,42%.In 2023 it was 1% and in 2024 it was 1,3%. In 2025, the return on assets remains around 1,3% in the second quarter and falls slightly to 1,2% in the third, which is still a reasonable figure for an environment of intense competition and demanding regulation.
El ROE (return on equity) also comfortably exceeds its long-term average (5,51%). In 2023 it reached 12,3% and in 2024 15,7%. In 2025, the figures remain very robust, with values of 15,5% in the second quarter and 15,8% in the third, supported by lower provisions, cost control and some recovery of commission income.
Extreme volatility in the foreign exchange market and exchange rate risk
The year 2025 has also been particularly eventful in the foreign exchange market, with the dollar's performance against the euro far from initial forecastsMarket consensus at the beginning of the year—from Reuters and Bloomberg—anticipated a possible return to parity, with a projected range around 1,04-1,05 USD/EUR. The reality has been very different.
The arrival of a new term for Donald Trump as President of the United States and the implementation of protectionist and unconventional economic measures Since the so-called "liberation day" (April 2), expectations have been reversed. From February to the end of June, the dollar weakened from 1,0142 to 1,1809 per euro, reaching a low of 1,1918 USD/EUR on September 17, implying a 17,5% loss in the value of the greenback so far this year.
The eurozone is thus experiencing a significant appreciation of the euro in a context of economic cooling In countries like Germany, France, and other northern economies, the ECB has simultaneously cut its intervention rate from 4,5% to 2,0%, and the currency appreciation is hindering international competitiveness. European companies are suffering a double blow: a US tariff of nearly 15% and a 17,5% increase in costs due to exchange rates, which together represent an approximate loss of 32,5% in terms of price competitiveness.
Forecasts for 2026 remain open. Market consensus suggests an average rate of 1,20 USD/EUR, with a possible range of 1,13-1,27However, some analysts are beginning to question whether the dollar's weakness will be so persistent. Several risk factors are cited that could change the narrative: potential bubbles in certain assets (stocks, commodities, cryptocurrencies), overvaluation of some businesses linked to artificial intelligence, the increasing weight of public debt in major economies, and the potential fragility of small banks in the United States due to liquidity problems.
In this context, the Risk aversion is making a strong comebackGold is reaching record highs, the Swiss franc—considered a safe-haven currency—is appreciating against the euro, and the dollar itself tends to recover ground during periods of tension, despite its structural weakness at certain times. The conclusion many companies are drawing is clear: it is essential to strengthen foreign exchange risk management, review hedging strategies, and avoid excessive open exposures.
Global monetary policies: ECB, Fed, BoE, BoJ and other central banks
On the international stage, 2025 has closed as another monetary easing exercise in most central banksWith few exceptions, interest rates have either entered a downward cycle or halted their rise. Japan has been one of the few countries to raise its official rate, increasing it by a total of 50 basis points to 0,75%, and Brazil has followed a similar path, bringing its rate to around 15% after increases of 275 basis points.
Within the eurozone, the The ECB has implemented four interest rate cuts in February, March, April and June of 2025...leaving the deposit rate close to 2%. The market had already priced in four or five cuts, so there were no major surprises. The current debate revolves around whether the central bank will begin laying the groundwork for a future rate hike in 2027 or even as early as the end of 2026, provided inflation remains close to the target and growth does not deteriorate too much.
In the United States, The Federal Reserve has opted for a somewhat more cautious approach, but has also cut rates.The Fed was expected to implement two rate cuts by the end of 2024, but ultimately carried out three in 2025, starting the cycle later than anticipated (in September) to better assess the impact of the new tariffs on growth and prices. The policy rate is currently hovering between 3,5% and 3,75%, with the market anticipating further reductions in 2026, although there is no clear consensus on their magnitude.
In the United Kingdom, the Bank of England is heading for a 25 basis point cut to 3,75%Amid a divided committee (a close 5-4 vote is anticipated), Japan, as noted, could raise rates by another 25 basis points, bringing them to 0,75%, with a near 95% probability based on market prices. Other central banks, such as those of Switzerland and Mexico, have made significant moves: Switzerland has cut rates by 50 basis points to 0,0%, and Mexico has implemented a 300 basis point cut to 7%, after several years of very restrictive rates.
US macroeconomic data continues to be closely watched by investors, especially inflation and employment figures. Headline inflation is around 3%, with core inflation also close to 3%.Meanwhile, GDP growth hovers around 2,3% and the unemployment rate remains at approximately 4,4%. In this context, the probability of an additional rate cut in January is estimated at around 24%, with the bulk of the reductions shifted to later in 2026.
Growth, inflation and market outlook in 2025
Forecasts from major asset managers point to a positive global growth scenario but with many sources of uncertaintyThe United States is projected to see GDP growth of around 2%, with the potential to surprise on the upside if consumer spending remains strong. The eurozone is expected to grow by around 1%, while China could reach approximately 1,5%, although there are concerns about the effectiveness of its stimulus policies.
In the eurozone, consumption starts from a relatively solid position – a robust labor market, positive real wages from 2024-2025, and accumulated savings – and will be boosted by lower interest ratesHowever, much of that savings may remain tied up in cash or short-term instruments, especially if investors don't perceive a clear improvement in the economic environment. Some improvement is beginning to be seen in German consumer spending indicators, although it is still in its early stages.
China has announced multiple stimulus measures, both monetary and fiscal, and support for the real estate sector and consumptionHowever, a significant impact is still not evident in the data. Retail sales are growing less than expected, industrial production is advancing somewhat less than anticipated, and real estate investment is registering historic declines. The price of new homes continues to fall, fueling caution among households and businesses.
Regarding inflation, the Most developed economies are converging towards rates close to 2,4% by 2025This scenario applies to both the United States and the Eurozone, with slightly more risk from underlying inflation in the United States. It allows central banks to gradually ease some of the restrictive nature of monetary policy, although without returning to the zero interest rates of the pre-inflationary era.
All of this paints a reasonably constructive picture for fixed income: Interest rate cuts improve the outlook for bond returns, which have a relatively low risk and volatility profile.Within this context, investment-grade credit appears particularly attractive compared to high-yield bonds, offering a good combination of absolute return and controlled risk. Expectations for equities are also favorable, with earnings per share growth of around 9% for the US stock market and 5% for the European market, and interesting upside potential for the Spanish stock market thanks to still reasonable valuations.
The year is therefore shaping up to be a year in which the Mixed portfolios - including the most conservative ones - could register positive returns in real termsProvided the current balance between moderate growth, contained inflation, and gradually declining interest rates is maintained, the key for the coming quarters will be the extent to which geopolitical tensions, tariff policies, or potential financial shocks (asset bubbles, bank liquidity problems) disrupt this scenario.
The overall picture for 2025 paints a picture of a calmer interbank market than during the crisis years, with institutions enjoying good profitability and liquidity, more prudent household savings, and a global environment where the Rigorous management of interest rate and currency risk is once again essentialIf anything is clear from all this data, it is that financial stability can no longer be taken for granted, and that investors, companies, and banks alike need to proceed with caution, diversify, and always keep a close eye on the evolution of central banks, public debt, and market volatility.
