Donald Trump's new trade offensive has triggered a chain reaction in international markets, causing significant stock market declines and creating a climate of tension between the world's major economies. The former US president has presented a wide-ranging tariff package affecting multiple countries, including his historical partners, under the argument of protecting domestic industry and correcting trade deficits that he considers detrimental to the United States. This situation reveals how the Trade war between the United States and China escalates.
These measures, justified as "economic independence" by Washington, have been met with concern by the international community, which fears the consequences of a large-scale and prolonged trade war. From Europe to Asia, passing through Latin America, the reactions have not been long in coming.
The immediate response of the financial markets
The announcement of the new tariffs has triggered a Black Monday in the stock markets. In Spain, the main stock market index, the IBEX 35, saw its value plummet 6,4% at the opening, falling below 11.700 points, a level not seen for months. This context has led many analysts to question on the future of the index.
All index values were trading in the red., with particularly sharp declines in companies such as Indra (-21,2%), Santander (-14,5%), and Mapfre (-14%). Other major firms such as BBVA, Repsol, Telefónica, and Iberdrola also recorded considerable losses.
The phenomenon has not been exclusive to Spain. The Paris, London, Frankfurt, and Milan stock markets followed a similar trend, with declines of up to 7,6% in some cases. In New York, Wall Street also started the week in the red: the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq all fell around 4% during the session.
Markets fear that increased tariffs will not only make trade more expensive, but will also trigger inflation., forcing central banks to rethink their monetary policies, especially at a time when economic recovery from several consecutive crises is at stake.
Details of the new tariff package
Trump has imposed 20% tariffs on all products arriving from the European Union, effective April 9.. This measure is part of a broader package that also includes tariffs of 25% for Japan and South Korea, 26% for India, 32% for Taiwan, and 31% for Switzerland. China has received the harshest treatment, facing a 34% rate, which could escalate to 50% if it does not withdraw its retaliation. This marks a turning point in US trade policy and could bring about significant changes.
The UK, along with countries such as Chile, Brazil and Australia, has been relatively less affected., with a tariff set at 10%, a figure that, according to the US administration, is “reciprocal” with what these countries apply to the United States.
Furthermore, all countries are now subject to a minimum base tariff of 10%., with specific exceptions such as strategic raw materials, pharmaceuticals, or energy. This marks a structural shift in U.S. trade policy, which has historically maintained low tariffs, especially toward its allies.
Repercussions for Spain
Spain is no exception to the impact of this new trade legislation. Some of the sectors most exposed to the US market—such as capital goods, industrial machinery, olive oil, steel, and petroleum products—could suffer significant losses. This is estimated to be affect employment in those sectors.
The Spanish Chamber of Commerce estimates that exports to the United States could decrease by between 10% and 18%., placing its central forecast at a 14,3% drop. This would imply losses of nearly €2.600 billion, representing 0,21% of national GDP.
Furthermore, sectors such as wine, biodiesel and ceramics, although of lower value in absolute figures, depend heavily on the US market.These industries would be severely affected by the imposition of 20% tariffs, putting thousands of jobs at risk and also impacting autonomous communities with a high concentration of exports.
International response and trade tensions
The European Union has not stood idly byThe European Commission has proposed 25% tariffs on iconic American products such as Harley-Davidson motorcycles, jeans, and orange juice, in retaliation for the steel and aluminum tariffs previously imposed by Trump. This reaction highlights how trade tensions can escalate a coordinated international response.
France and Ireland have played an active role in internal negotiations., successfully excluding some sensitive products such as bourbon whiskey from the list of products subject to the new taxes. Brussels is also considering implementing more forceful measures using the recently approved Anti-Coercion Instrument, although its implementation will take weeks given the complex legal process.
Asia has also reacted strongly. China has imposed its own 34% tariffs on US goods and warned it will take additional measures if Trump doesn't withdraw the new tariffs. Japan, South Korea, and other Southeast Asian countries have shown a shared willingness to retaliate jointly, strengthening their cooperation in the face of what they consider unilateral trade aggression.
The economic logic and medium-term consequences
From an economic perspective, Trump's strategy is based on a mercantilist vision in which a trade deficit is viewed as a sign of weakness. Under this approach, tariffs would serve as a tool to balance trade, increasing domestic production and reducing dependence on foreign countries.
However, many economists criticize this premise., stressing that bilateral deficits are not a reflection of trade injustices but of complex macroeconomic structures, such as savings and investment. Furthermore, the arbitrary application of tariffs—calculated according to imprecise formulas—raises doubts about their actual effectiveness.
The Trump administration expects to raise between $700.000 billion and $800.000 billion from these taxes., although most experts agree that the increase will likely be much smaller due to the drop in import volumes. Furthermore, with imported goods becoming more expensive, an increase in inflation is anticipated, which could force the Federal Reserve to tighten its monetary policy.
This domino effect will further complicate the global economic outlook. The possibility of a prolonged trade war could disrupt entire supply chains, create investment uncertainty, and reduce international trade for several years.
Trump's decision to impose widespread tariffs has had an immediate and profound impact on markets, global trade, and diplomatic relations. Countries like Spain are already anticipating this. significant losses in its exports, while major economic powers, such as China and the European Union, are preparing to respond. As retaliation multiplies and markets continue to reflect this tension, it seems clear that the international trade model is entering a phase of profound transformation, driven less by technical criteria and more by the political strategy of an administration seeking to redefine its role in the economic world.
