The new trade offensive launched by Donald Trump has triggered a chain reaction in international markets, causing significant stock market declines and creating a climate of tension among the world's major economies. The former US president has introduced a sweeping package of tariffs affecting multiple countries, including long-standing partners, under the pretext of protecting domestic industry and correcting trade deficits he considers detrimental to the United States. This situation reveals how the trade war between the United States and China is escalating.
These measures, justified by Washington as a means of achieving "economic independence," have been met with concern by the international community, which fears the consequences of a large-scale and protracted trade war. Reactions have been swift from Europe to Asia and Latin America.
The immediate response of the financial markets
The announcement of the new tariffs triggered a Black Monday in the stock markets. In Spain, the main stock index, the IBEX 35, saw its value plummet 6,4% at the opening bell, falling below 11.700 points, levels not seen for months. This situation has led many analysts to question the index's future.
All the stocks in the index were trading in the red , with particularly steep declines in companies like Indra (-21,2%), Santander (-14,5%), and Mapfre (-14%). Other major firms such as BBVA, Repsol, Telefónica, and Iberdrola also registered considerable losses.
The phenomenon has not been exclusive to Spain. The stock exchanges in Paris, London, Frankfurt, and Milan have followed a similar trend, with declines of up to 7,6% in some cases. In New York, Wall Street also started the week in the red: the Dow Jones, the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq fell by around 4% during the day.
Markets fear that increased tariffs will not only make trade more expensive, but also trigger inflation , forcing central banks to rethink their monetary policies, especially at a time when economic recovery is at stake after several consecutive crises.
Details of the new tariff package
Trump has decreed 20% tariffs on all goods imported from the European Union, effective April 9. This measure is part of a broader set of tariffs that also includes 25% for Japan and South Korea, 26% for India, 32% for Taiwan, and 31% for Switzerland. China has received the harshest treatment, facing a 34% tariff, which could escalate to 50% if it does not withdraw its retaliatory measures. This marks a turning point in US trade policy and could bring about significant changes.
The United Kingdom, along with countries such as Chile, Brazil and Australia, has been relatively less affected , with a tariff set at 10%, a figure that, according to the US administration, is "reciprocal" with respect to what these countries apply to the United States.
Furthermore, all countries are now subject to a minimum base tariff of 10% , with specific exceptions such as strategic raw materials, pharmaceuticals, and energy. This marks a structural shift in US trade policy, which has historically maintained low tariffs, especially toward its allies.
Repercussions for Spain
Spain will not escape the impacts of this new trade legislation. Some of the sectors most exposed to the US market—such as capital goods, industrial machinery, olive oil, steel, and petroleum products—could suffer significant losses. It is estimated that this could affect employment in those sectors.
The Spanish Chamber of Commerce estimates that exports to the United States could decrease between 10% and 18% , with its central forecast predicting a 14,3% drop. This would imply losses of approximately €2.600 billion, representing 0,21% of Spain's GDP.
Furthermore, sectors such as wine, biodiesel, and ceramics, although of lower absolute value, are heavily dependent on the US market . These industries would be severely affected by the imposition of 20% tariffs, which would jeopardize thousands of jobs and also impact autonomous communities with a high concentration of exports.
International response and trade tensions
The European Union has not remained idle . The European Commission has proposed 25% tariffs on iconic American products such as Harley-Davidson motorcycles, jeans, and orange juice, in retaliation for the steel and aluminum tariffs previously imposed by Trump. This reaction demonstrates how trade tensions can escalate into a coordinated international response.
France and Ireland have played an active role in internal negotiations , successfully ensuring that some sensitive products, such as bourbon whiskey, were excluded from the list of goods subject to the new taxes. Brussels is also considering implementing stronger measures using the recently approved Anti-Coercion Instrument, although its application will take weeks given its complex legal process.
Asia has also reacted strongly. China has imposed its own 34% tariffs on US goods and warned that it will take further action if Trump does not withdraw the new tariffs. Japan, South Korea, and other Southeast Asian countries have shown a shared willingness to retaliate jointly, strengthening their cooperation in the face of what they consider unilateral trade aggression.
The economic logic and medium-term consequences
From an economic standpoint, Trump's strategy stems from a mercantilist view that considers a trade deficit a sign of weakness. Under this approach, tariffs would serve as a tool to balance trade, increasing domestic production and reducing dependence on foreign imports.
However, many economists criticize this premise , emphasizing that bilateral deficits are not a reflection of trade injustices but rather of complex macroeconomic structures, such as savings and investment. Furthermore, the arbitrary application of tariffs—calculated using imprecise formulas—raises doubts about their actual effectiveness.
The Trump administration expects to raise between $700.000 billion and $800.000 billion from these tariffs , although most experts agree that the increase will likely be much smaller due to the drop in import volumes. Furthermore, by making imported goods more expensive, an increase in inflation is anticipated, which could force the Federal Reserve to tighten its monetary policy.
This domino effect will further complicate the global economic outlook. The possibility of a prolonged trade war could disrupt entire supply chains, create uncertainty for investment, and reduce international trade for several years.
Trump's decision to impose widespread tariffs has had an immediate and profound impact on markets, global trade, and diplomatic relations. Countries like Spain are already anticipating significant losses in their exports , while major economic powers, such as China and the European Union, are preparing to retaliate. As retaliatory measures multiply and markets continue to reflect this tension, it seems clear that the international trade model is entering a phase of profound transformation, driven less by technical criteria and more by the political strategy of an administration seeking to redefine its role in the global economy.
