The recent US offensive against nuclear facilities in Iran has unleashed a wave of nervousness in global financial and energy markets . The attack, which follows weeks of escalating tension in the Middle East, has placed investors and analysts in one of the most uncertain and delicate scenarios seen in recent years.
In the hours immediately following the bombing, oil prices surged, while global stock markets and risk assets traded with extreme caution . The possibility of a blockade of the strategic Strait of Hormuz —through which approximately one-fifth of the world's crude oil and a similar proportion of liquefied natural gas pass—has become the focus of attention. Fears of a further escalation of the conflict are increasing volatility across all sectors.
Oil and energy, in the eye of the storm
Since the announcement of the US attack, Brent crude futures have risen by more than 11%, and US West Texas Intermediate has experienced a similar increase . The figures leave no doubt about the existing nervousness: experts suggest that, in the event of an effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the price of a barrel could climb to $120 or even $130 , a situation not seen since historic energy crises.
Not only is crude oil under pressure; natural gas has also seen significant price increases . This double pressure particularly affects Europe, which relies heavily on imports to meet its energy demands, as well as Asian countries, the main buyers of liquefied natural gas exported from the Gulf region.
The immediate consequences are beginning to be felt in gasoline prices in countries like the United States, where the average cost per gallon is already rising and threatens further increases in the coming days. Analysts warn that if the crisis continues, the average price of gasoline could easily exceed $3,40 per gallon , and even surpass $5 if the situation worsens.
Experts like Patrick de Haan point out that the price increase could be passed directly on to consumers , increasing the cost not only of fuel, but also of electricity —especially due to the impact on combined cycle power plants and the European energy mix— and of basic products due to the increased cost of transport.
Financial markets, investments and safe haven assets
The reaction of international stock markets has, for the moment, been less dramatic than might be expected given the magnitude of the event, although analysts agree that the week ahead will be volatile and with potential for further declines . European and US indices have fallen between 1,5% and 2% since the start of hostilities, although the market is awaiting sharper movements as events unfold.
Conversely, gold, US Treasury bonds, and the US dollar have reinforced their traditional role as safe-haven assets . The dollar has appreciated by approximately 0,9% since the start of the conflict, while demand for hedging in the markets increases to protect against a potential worsening of the situation.
Israel's stock market has surprised with historic gains, reflecting the perception among some investors that Washington's move could pave the way for diplomatic cooperation. However, in the rest of the Middle East, markets are more cautious, with mixed movements depending on each country's proximity and weight in the energy sector.
As for investors, major fund managers and banks are currently recommending remaining calm, diversifying portfolios, and favoring defensive sectors such as energy, gold, consumer staples, and healthcare. History suggests that geopolitical panics tend to have temporary effects on stock markets, but the current uncertainty warrants continued vigilance.
Medium-term economic and political risks
A key factor is the indirect impact that energy inflation can have on central bank monetary policies . With rising prices, the possibility that the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, or other central banks will delay or postpone interest rate cuts increases. This would affect the Euribor, mortgage costs, business activity, and ultimately, employment.
Furthermore, the political uncertainty itself and the potential for Iranian retaliation—as the Iranian Parliament has already warned, formally recommending the closure of the Strait of Hormuz— are adding pressure to the global economy . The risk of stagflation, where economic growth stalls and prices rise, is becoming a real concern for analysts and institutions.
Some experts warn that a sustained 20%-30% rise in the price of oil could reduce global growth by between 0,5% and 1% , while consumer inflation would experience a proportional increase.
