The recent US offensive against nuclear facilities in Iran has unleashed a wave of nervousness in global financial and energy markets.The attack, which follows weeks of rising tension in the Middle East, has placed to investors and analysts in the face of one of the most uncertain and delicate scenarios in recent years.
In the hours immediately following the bombing, oil prices have experienced strong rebounds, while global stock markets and risk assets operate with great caution.. The possibility of a blockade of the strategic Strait of Hormuz —through which approximately one-fifth of the world's crude oil and a similar proportion of its liquefied gas circulate—has become the center of attention. fears of a further escalation of the conflict increase volatility in all sectors.
Oil and energy, in the eye of the storm
Since the announcement of the US attack, Brent crude oil futures have risen by more than 11% and US West Texas Intermediate has seen a similar rise.The figures leave no doubt about the existing nervousness: experts point out that, in the event of an effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, The price of a barrel could rise to $120 or even $130., a situation not seen since historical energy crises.
Not only is crude oil under pressure; Natural gas has also seen notable increasesThis double pressure particularly affects Europe, which relies heavily on imports to meet its energy demand, and Asian countries, the main buyers of liquefied gas exported by the Gulf region.
The immediate consequences are beginning to be felt in gasoline prices. In countries like the United States, where the average cost per gallon is already rising and threatens to increase further in the coming days. Analysts warn that if the crisis continues, The average price of gasoline could easily exceed $3,40 per gallon, and even exceed $5 if the situation worsens.
Experts such as Patrick de Haan point out that The price increase could be passed directly on to consumers, increasing the cost not only of fuel, but also of electricity—especially due to the impact on combined-cycle power plants and the European energy mix—and of basic products due to the rising cost of transportation.
Financial markets, investments and safe haven assets
The reaction of the international stock markets has been, for the moment, less dramatic than one would expect in the face of an event of this magnitude, although Analysts agree that the week is volatile and with potential fallsEuropean and US indices have fallen between 1,5% and 2% since the start of hostilities, although the market is expecting sharper movements as events unfold.
In the opposite direction, Gold, US Treasury bonds and the US dollar have reinforced their traditional role as safe havens.The dollar has appreciated by about 0,9% since the start of the conflict, while Demand for coverage in the markets is increasing to protect against a possible worsening of the situation.
La Israeli stock exchange The price of oil has surprised with historic increases, reflecting some investors' perception that Washington's move could pave the way for diplomatic action. However, in the rest of the Middle East, markets are showing more caution, with mixed movements depending on each country's proximity and weight in the energy landscape.
As for investors, the main fund managers and banks recommend, for now, Stay calm, diversify portfolios, and favor defensive sectors such as energy, gold, consumer staples, and healthcare. History suggests that geopolitical panics tend to have temporary effects on stock markets, but the current uncertainty encourages us to remain vigilant.
Medium-term economic and political risks
A key factor is the indirect impact that the Energy inflation may have an impact on central banks' monetary policiesWith rising prices, the possibility that the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, or other central banks will delay or suspend interest rate cuts is growing. This would affect the Euribor, mortgage costs, business activity, and, ultimately, employment.
Furthermore, the political uncertainty itself and possible retaliation by Iran—as already warned by the Iranian Parliament, which has formally recommended the closure of the Strait of Hormuz— add pressure on the global economyThe risk of stagflation, where economic growth slows and prices rise, is becoming a real concern for analysts and institutions.
Some experts warn that a sustained 20%-30% rise in the price of oil could reduce global growth by between 0,5% and 1%, while consumer inflation would experience a proportional increase.
