Spanish equities are facing a phase of maximum intensity in the final stretch of the yearWith the Ibex 35 once again approaching 16.000 points, following previous episodes in which the index It approached 15.000 points and stringing together several days of gains. After correcting last week, the index has recovered momentum with increases of around 1% in various sessions, supported by major financial and industrial stocks and a somewhat calmer international environment.
In this context, the Spanish index accumulates a revaluation of over 36%-37% so far this yearThe Ibex 35 is among the best-performing markets in Europe. Although still below its all-time high of 16.615 points, the index is once again trading comfortably between 15.900 and 16.100 points, clearly demonstrating that the 16.000 mark has become a key psychological benchmark for investors.
The Ibex 35 is once again approaching 16.000 points
In several recent sessions, the index has reached levels around 15.950-15.980 points In the mid-session, after starting the day with gains of around 0,9%. In one session, the index opened at 15.960 points, while in others it clearly surpassed that threshold and closed above it. 16.140 points, leading the gains among the main European stock exchanges.
Intraday movements show a market with some volatility, but where the Buyer bias still predominatesOn some days, the index has moderated its initial gains to less than 1%, but without falling below the 15.900-point mark. On others, after a more subdued start, the second half of the session has brought additional momentum, allowing the Ibex to close clearly above 16.000 points.
The comparison with the highs reached the previous week, around 16.615 points at close And an intraday high that approached 16.638 points shows that the index still has room to recover. However, the fact that it remains consistently very close to 16.000 points confirms that the Spanish market is going through a phase of relative strength compared to other European indices.
Much of this behavior is explained by the combination of a support from the index's heavyweights and an interest rate environment that could become more loose in the coming months, as in recent sessions these large stocks have concentrated much of the buying flow.
The stocks that drive the index: banks, industrial companies and large listed companies
Among the key players pushing the Ibex towards 16.000 points are the major financial and industrial companies. On different days, ACS, ArcelorMittal, Ferrovial, Santander, BBVA, Inditex, CaixaBank and Bankinter They have been among the most bullish values, with gains that, in some cases, have easily exceeded 3%.
ACS It has become one of the driving forces behind the index, stringing together several sessions of gains. The construction and concession company has even led the index's rises with increases exceeding 3,5%, supported by improved recommendations from international analysts who have raised its target price to record levels.
In the financial sector, domestic banks have shown a very solid tone. CaixaBank It has become the top-performing company on the Ibex on specific days, with gains of up to 4%, supported by both positive reports from entities such as JP Morgan —which upgraded its recommendation to “overweight” and raised the target price above 11 euros— and the completion of its latest share buyback program, with an investment of 500 million euros and more than 61 million shares acquired.
Other banks, such as Bankinter, Santander and BBVAThese factors have also contributed to the positive performance of the index, with gains ranging between 1% and 3%, solidifying the financial sector as one of the Ibex's main pillars this year. The market values the still relatively high interest rate environment, while also beginning to price in future rate cuts that could ease pressure on credit without significantly impacting margins.
In the industrial and infrastructure sectors, Ferrovial, ArcelorMittal and Acerinox have registered significant progress. Ferrovial has been supported by the expectation of toll increases on some of its highway concessions starting in 2026, while ArcelorMittal and Acerinox have benefited from the talks between the European Union and the United States to reduce steel tariffs and eliminate some trade restrictionsThis context has favored a rebound in the values most closely linked to the economic cycle and international trade.
Telefónica, workforce reduction plan, fiber optic agreements and investment focus
Another of the protagonists of these days is TelefónicaTelefónica remains under intense market scrutiny due to both its workforce reduction plan in Spain and corporate moves related to its fiber and content business. The operator has informed unions of the scale of the workforce reduction plan, which will affect several of the group's main companies in Spain, including Telefónica de España, Telefónica Móviles, and Telefónica Soluciones.
In parallel, the group participates in strategic operations linked to the fiber optic infrastructureOf particular note is the agreement for Axa IM Alts to acquire a stake in FiberPass, the joint venture between Telefónica and Vodafone in Spain, through the sale of a significant share for approximately €500 million. This move highlights the value of these types of assets and reinforces the industry trend of monetizing its networks through partnerships with institutional investors.
At the same time, the market remains attentive to the possible Review of Movistar's convergent tariffsThese stock prices could see an average increase of around 4% in the coming months. This type of business activity is usually closely watched by investors, as it can impact revenue per customer and the profitability of the business in a highly competitive environment.
Telefónica's stock market reaction has been reasonably positive on some days, with gains of around 2%, suggesting that the market interprets the set of measures—adjustment of labor costs and valuation of network assets—as a way of strengthen the group's financial position in the medium term.
Renewables and utilities, the less favorable side of the Ibex
While large banks and industrial companies are boosting the index, the weakest part of the Ibex 35 is largely concentrated in the renewables and some utilitiesStocks such as Solaria, Acciona and Acciona Energía have experienced significant corrections over several sessions, with daily drops that at certain times have exceeded 3%-4%.
In the case of SolariumsThe pressure has been exacerbated by changes in recommendations from some analysts. Firms like Berenberg have downgraded their recommendation from "buy" to "hold," although they have raised their target price from around €12,5 to approximately €19 per share, which still represents medium-term upside potential compared to the current share price.
Meanwhile, other analysts, such as those at Barclays, have opted for revise upwards the theoretical value of Solariasetting the target price above 23 euros. However, volatility remains high in the renewable energy sector, where regulatory uncertainty, the evolution of interest rates—key for investment-intensive projects—and the perceived risk associated with the energy transition all converge.
In addition to renewables, other names that have appeared repeatedly on the downside include: Indra, Repsol, Acciona or some tourism companies like Amadeus, which have registered more moderate cuts but enough to partially counterbalance the surge of the day's big winners.
European stock markets: the Ibex takes the lead
In the rest of Europe, the general tone has been moderate purchases with some exceptionsIn different sessions, the German Dax has achieved gains close to 1%, the French Cac has moved between slight declines and gains below 1%, the Italian Mib has oscillated between drops of around 0,8% and rebounds close to 1%, and the British FTSE 100 has closed some days practically flat or with gains of less than 1%.
The Ibex 35 has repeatedly led gains in Europe, with increases exceeding 1% that have allowed it to surpass the 1% mark. 16.140 pointsThis relative strength is due both to the weight of financial stocks, which are benefiting from the still-high interest rate environment, and to the pull of consumer and distribution companies such as Inditex, which has registered increases of more than 1,5%.
Within European equities, some companies have stood out for their particular movements. ABN Amro It has achieved revaluations of more than 6% after presenting ambitious business objectives until 2028, while companies such as Nucera, Fortum or Eutelsat have suffered sharp falls after publishing results or announcing capital increases.
In aggregate terms, the continent's equities are supported by the expectation that central banks—both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank— enter a more accommodating phase if the containment of inflation and the cooling of economic growth are confirmed.
The role of the Federal Reserve and the global sentiment of the markets
Beyond Europe, the performance of the Ibex 35 is framed within a global context where investors are closely monitoring the upcoming decisions of the US Federal ReserveThe most recent Fed minutes and statements from some of its members have reinforced the idea that further rate cuts could occur at the December meeting, following the 25 basis point reduction decided earlier.
The implied probabilities in futures markets fluctuate, but at times they have reached above the 80% probability of another cutComments from influential central bank figures, such as Christopher Waller or the president of the New York Fed, have suggested that if employment and activity data moderate, further adjustments might be appropriate.
This backdrop has supported the world's major stock exchanges. In the United States, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq They have experienced days of clear gains, with advances of around 1%-2%, particularly driven by the technology sector. Companies linked to artificial intelligence and semiconductors have led the rebounds, while some analysts are beginning to warn about the demanding valuations in the sector.
In Asia, the performance has been more varied. The index Nikkei 225 The market has experienced several sessions of mild movements, both upward and virtually flat, while in China and Hong Kong, the markets have fluctuated between consolidation and occasional rebounds. Despite the improvement in global sentiment, doubts persist about the growth of the Asian giant and the potential impact on global demand.
Public debt, foreign exchange and raw materials
In fixed income markets, the stabilization of the Ibex near 16.000 points occurs in parallel with some relatively contained debt yieldsThe Spanish 10-year bond is trading around 3,15%-3,20%, with slight variations of just a few hundredths of a percent compared to previous sessions. The risk premium against the German bund is around 50-51 basis points.
In the case of Germany, ten-year debt remains below 2,7%Meanwhile, in the United States, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note is approaching 4%, retreating from slightly higher levels recorded weeks ago. This moderation in long-term interest rates enhances the relative attractiveness of equities, especially in economies like Spain's.
In the foreign exchange market, the The euro remains strong against the dollarThe euro has been trading slightly above $1,15 per euro. In some sessions, the euro has appreciated to levels as high as $1,1540, while in others it has remained very close to $1,1520-$1,1530, reflecting an environment of contained volatility.
In energy raw materials, the Brent oil —the European benchmark— has remained within a price range of around $61-$62 per barrel, with slight declines reflecting concerns about a potential oversupply in the coming months. West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark, has moved within a similar range, between $57 and $59, with daily fluctuations of less than 1%.
In parallel, the Gold consolidates gains Fueled by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Fed and the search for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical and technological uncertainty, the precious metal is approaching $4.100 per ounce, while Bitcoin has rebounded from recent lows and is once again above $87.000, demonstrating its high volatility.
The Spanish market faces this phase with an Ibex 35 that It repeatedly hovers around the 16.000-point mark.The index is supported by major banks, construction companies, and industrial stocks, while renewables and some utilities are acting as a partial brake. The international environment, with attention focused on the Federal Reserve's next moves and the trajectory of the global economy, will continue to be crucial in determining whether the index can consolidate above 16.000 points and approach its all-time highs again.
