El The Ibex 35 has fallen below the psychological threshold of 17.000 points. right after having them conquered for the first time in its history, ending a bullish streak that had propelled the index to unprecedented highs. After several days of almost uninterrupted gains, the Spanish benchmark index has turned downwards amid profit-taking and increased caution in international markets.
This change of course comes in a A particularly intense end to the year for the Spanish Stock ExchangeThe index has still accumulated a revaluation of around 45%-46% so far this year, one of the best records in its recent history, but it has begun to show signs of fatigue in the high zone, with sharper movements in step with macroeconomic references and the behavior of Wall Street.
From historic milestone to downward turn
In recent sessions, the Ibex 35 reached surpass 17.000 points intraday It even closed above that level, reaching all-time highs around 17.020-17.035 points. However, selling pressure gained momentum and the index ultimately fell back to where it was. around 16.850-16.920 points, with daily declines of between 0,3% and 0,7% depending on the day.
This setback comes after a week that, despite the final declines, remains positive: the index It is up nearly 1% in the weekly count And it has now accumulated three consecutive weeks of gains. So far in December, the rebound is around 3%, which shows that, although the upward momentum has moderated, the underlying trend remains clearly upward.
The loss of the 17.000-point level doesn't entirely surprise analysts, who had been warning for some time that, after such an intense rally, it was logical for the market to take a breather. In fact, some experts were pointing just a few days ago to the possibility of bullish extensions towards 17.200 pointsBut always conditional on the absence of signs of technical weakness and a relatively calm international environment, something that has not yet been fully realized.
Much of the accumulated growth so far has been driven primarily by financial sectorwhich has boosted the index due to the absence of major technology companies listed in Spain. However, in recent days it has been precisely the banks and some cyclical stocks that have most felt the profit-taking.
Pressure from Wall Street and the artificial intelligence bubble
The Ibex 35's turnaround is best understood by looking at Wall Street, where the declines have intensified After several warnings about a potential AI bubble, fears that major US tech companies have jumped ahead of the real benefits AI can generate in the short term are causing sharp price swings.
The most striking example has been that of BroadcomDespite posting spectacular results—with net profits nearly quadrupling and strong revenue growth—the company has suffered a severe stock market downturn, plummeting by almost 11%. The company has warned of a potential reduction in its gross margins and EBITDA as the weight of its AI systems increases, a business with lower profitability than some custom chips.
This warning has fueled doubts about the future profitability of the huge investments in artificial intelligenceThis has affected other giants in the semiconductor and technology sector, such as AMD and Oracle, which have also experienced significant declines. Analysts warn that, given the weight of these companies in the rally that began in 2022, any substantial correction could trigger a market crash. more widespread sales wave in the main US indices.
Against this backdrop, the S & P 500, the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq have registered moderate but steady declines, which has infected to European stock marketsIn many recent sessions, the Ibex 35 and the rest of the indices of the Old Continent have started with gains to losing momentum after the opening of New York, ending the day in the red despite the good initial feelings.
US employment data and doubts about the Fed
The macroeconomic context also does not help stability. In the United States, the latest jobs report has shown the creation of 64.000 jobs in November, a better figure than the consensus predicted, but accompanied by a unemployment rate rises to 4,6%, the highest level since 2021.
This pattern of The labor market is weak, but not in freefall.This is generating mixed interpretations among investors. On the one hand, weaker employment could justify further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve; on the other, the fact that the situation is not deteriorating more rapidly limits the likelihood of an aggressive series of cuts.
Investment firms and economists agree that the report has sufficient weakness to support advance rate cutsBut not enough to justify much deeper monetary easing. In this scenario, market attention is already shifting towards the next inflation reading and the December jobs report, which will be released before the next Fed meeting and could tip the scales.
For now, the implied probabilities point to the Federal Reserve will maintain rates in JanuaryDespite having implemented three consecutive rate cuts in recent months, the central bank has warned that a pause in the rate-cutting cycle is approaching and that, by 2026, the bulk of the adjustment will be practically complete, with rates still in the lower 3% range.
Europe between macroeconomic caution and waiting for the ECB
Meanwhile, in Europe the feeling is that controlled prudenceThe continent's major stock exchanges—London, Frankfurt, Paris, and Milan—have closed several recent sessions with losses, although generally more moderate than on Wall Street. The Ibex 35's correction has followed this trend, while still remaining one of the strongest indices of the year.
Investors in the Old Continent are eyeing the next meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB)In this context, no immediate changes in interest rates are expected, but a possible improvement in economic forecasts is anticipated. The lower inflationary pressure, combined with the Fed's rate-cutting cycle in the United States, is favoring a appreciation of the euro against the dollar, with the exchange rate moving around 1,17-1,18 dollars per common currency, close to its highest levels since 2021.
Regarding economic activity, the latest Eurozone and UK composite PMI indices They show a slight slowdown in private sector growth, mainly due to the contraction in manufacturing. Even so, for the first time since the pandemic, eurozone companies have posted consecutive growth. a full calendar year of uninterrupted expansionThis is a fact that provides some reassurance despite the signs of a cooling-off period.
In Germany, the ZEW investor confidence survey has reflected a significant improvement in sentimentThis comes amid expectations that Europe's largest economy will finally emerge from its period of stagnation. Inflation data has also been released in countries such as Spain and Germany, confirming the moderation of prices, as well as growth figures in the United Kingdom, where GDP has again registered slight monthly declines.
Stocks that are dragging the Ibex down and sectors that are holding up
In the business sector, the Ibex 35's correction has had some notable figures. Among them most punished values Indra, Repsol, and a large part of the banking sector are included.Indra's shares have registered declines of around 4%-5%, in a context where the entire European defense sector has also suffered significant sales.
The reason for this punishment has been linked to statements made by the President of the United States, Donald Trumpwho has suggested that peace in the war between Russia and Ukraine is "closer than ever." These words have triggered a significant adjustment in companies linked to the military and security business, which had been profiting from the European rearmament process and geopolitical tensions.
For its part, Repsol has been swept away by the oil price dropBrent crude is now trading below $60-$61 a barrel, hitting lows not seen since 2021, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is hovering around $55-$57. Expectations of a potential peace agreement in Ukraine and the subsequent easing of sanctions have reduced the so-called geopolitical premium on crude oil, putting downward pressure on European oil companies.
The banking sector, which had been one of the mainstays of the Ibex 35 rally, has also slowed down. Entities such as CaixaBank, Santander or Sabadell They have recorded sessions with notable declines, exceeding 2% in some cases, subtracting significant points from the index on days when it has lost the 17.000 mark.
In response to this behavior, certain sectors have acted as a buffer for the index. These include: utilities and tourism-related companiesas well as some companies with high levels of debt that benefit from the expectation of a somewhat lower interest rate environment in the medium term. Among the values ​​with the greatest potential Acciona, Acciona EnergÃa, Redeia, Aena and IAG have been featured in various recent events, in addition to stocks such as Acerinox or some REITs.
Telefónica, dividends and corporate moves
Another of the key players in the Spanish market has been TelefónicaThe operator has traded with the dividend discounted, distributing 0,15 euros gross per shareThis represents a return of approximately 4% compared to the pre-dividend price. This "ex-dividend" effect has caused occasional drops of over 4% in its share price, although if the impact of the shareholder payment is strictly discounted, the actual decline has been much more moderate.
Telefónica also maintains a Workforce reduction plan under negotiation with unions This could affect around 5.000 employees in its main subsidiaries in Spain, a key process for its costs and business structure in the medium term. With this payment, the company completes its shareholder remuneration policy for the year and remains in the spotlight for investors due to its restructuring and transformation strategy.
In the broader corporate sphere, the session has also been marked by CNMV decisions, such as the precautionary suspension of the quotation of Western Catalan Group Following the successful takeover bid launched by the Inocsa holding company, linked to the Serra family, this type of transaction reflects the dynamism of the Spanish mergers and acquisitions market, even in a context of greater stock market volatility.
In parallel, companies such as Griffols They have been providing positive news, such as the European Medicines Agency's certification of the entire value chain of their blood products subsidiary in Egypt, a significant milestone in their international expansion strategy. While these developments alone do not determine the direction of the Ibex, they do contribute to shaping the daily market tone.
Commodities, currencies and fixed income: a more benign environment
The situation in commodity and currency markets offers some relief for Europe and, in particular, for Spain. sharp correction in oil pricesWith Brent below $61 and WTI moving in the $55-$57 range, it lowers energy bills and introduces an additional element of downward pressure on inflation.
Los precious metals They have shown more contained movements. Gold remains around $4.250-$4.350, with slight declines in some sessions, while silver is registering more moderate variations. Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market is experiencing its own correction: Bitcoin It remains well below its historical highs and has accumulated significant drops since October, even though December is traditionally a positive month for the cryptocurrency.
In the foreign exchange market, the The euro has strengthened against the dollarThe euro is trading in the range of 1,17-1,18 US dollars per unit. This appreciation is supported by the perception that the ECB will not have to go as far as the Fed in its rate-cutting cycle and by the moderation of inflation in the eurozone. For Spain, a stronger euro makes imports such as energy cheaper, although it may also reduce the competitiveness of exports.
With regards to fixed rentThe yield on the 10-year Spanish bond is slightly above 3,2%-3,3%, with a risk premium against the German bund of around 44-45 basis points. These figures point to a more stable environment for government and corporate financing, far from the levels of tension experienced in other phases of the cycle.
The Ibex 35 fell below the 17.000 points It fits more with a breather after a historic rally than with a drastic change in trend: the index remains one of the most bullish indices of the year, but it is now moving conditioned by the volatility coming from Wall Street, the doubts surrounding artificial intelligence, the changing interpretation of employment data in the United States and the expectations about the next steps of the Fed and the ECB, while investors assess whether the boost from the Spanish and European economy will be enough to sustain further increases in 2026.
