El The Ibex 35 has once again brought joy to investors. in the final stretch of the year, closing this Monday with a slight increase of 0,13%, which has allowed it to position itself at the 17.195,8 pointsWith this record, the main index of the Spanish Stock Exchange marks a new all-time high at the close and it literally falls short of 17.200 points, a psychological threshold that it has touched but has not yet consolidated.
In a year that has been spectacular for Spanish equities, the index has accumulated a revaluation of close to 50% in 2025The index has been stringing together gains that have led it to shatter resistance levels that seemed insurmountable just a few months ago. Today's session, despite being affected by the low volume typical of this time of year and by an international environment fraught with geopolitical uncertainty and interest rate movements, has once again confirmed the strength of the national index.
Another record-breaking session for an Ibex 35 on a roll
The performance of the Ibex 35 in this last full week of trading of the year has been clearly bullish, although with moderate variationsThis Monday, the index gained 0,13%, reaching 17.195,8 points, a new all-time high at the close, just shy of 17.200. It had already flirted with that level in previous days. hardiness zonebut without actually setting it at the end of the session.
The day has largely unfolded with the index moving with slight losses or very limited advancesThis reflects the low trading volume. Analysts had already warned that, given the time of year, many investors had "closed the books" and were limiting themselves to small portfolio adjustments. The turnaround occurred with the opening of Wall Street, when the US benchmark and, especially, the solid US GDP reading gave the European market a bit more confidence.
In this context, the Ibex 35 not only managed to close in positive territory, but also has set a new all-time closing highconsolidating the upward trend of recent weeks. The recent session on December 23rd had already left the index at 17.182,8 points, also a record high, and Monday's session has taken that streak a step further.
Overall, the year is proving exceptional: the main indicator of the Spanish market is registering a cumulative gain of around 48%-50% so far in 2025, positioning itself as one of the most prominent indices in Europe. This progress is supported both by the recovery of cyclical sectors and by the strong performance of values with the greatest potential linked to technology, infrastructure and renewables.
The session was also one of the last with a full schedule before the Christmas holidays. The Spanish stock market faces a week shortened by holidaysWith trading only until midday and several closures due to Christmas, this further reinforces the symbolic importance of these historic levels reached by the Ibex.
Stocks driving the index: telecoms, steel and real estate
The index's advance has been supported by a group of companies that have acted as true engines of growth. Among them, the following have stood out: Cellnex, Acerinox, ArcelorMittal, Colonial or Merlin PropertiesIn addition to Telefónica and other defensive stocks, these companies have contributed decisive points to the index, offsetting the weaker performance of some banks after a year of strong gains.
On Monday, Cellnex has positioned itself among the most bullish companiesWith gains of around 1,9%, the stock market consolidated its recovery amid strong demand for telecommunications infrastructure. Steel companies also had a good day: Acerinox rose by around 1,8% and ArcelorMittal advanced by more than 1%, reflecting interest in stocks linked to the economic cycle in a context of still reasonable growth.
The listed real estate sector, through REITs, has also contributed to the positive performance of the index. Colonial has gained approximately 1,7% and Merlin around 0,6%.In an environment of interest rates that, although still high, are beginning to show a clearer ceiling thanks to the change in tone from central banks, this shift favors finance-intensive assets, such as real estate, and is starting to be reflected in their prices.
In other recent days, energy and renewable energy-related values have also shone. Solaria, for example, expects to increase by around 130% by 2025.placing it among the top-performing companies of the year within the Ibex. Naturgy, Iberdrola, and companies with a strong presence in critical infrastructure have also contributed to this rally in the index.
The business chapter has not been limited to the Stock Exchange. In the continuous market and among listed Spanish companies, significant corporate transactions have been reported, such as Fluidra's investment, which has completed a $100 million contribution to acquire 27% of Aiper, a company specializing in wireless technological solutions for pool cleaning, with the aim of strengthening its position in that market niche.
Corrections in banks and stocks with strong appreciation
The other side of the coin has been presented by some sectors that, after a very positive year, have served to carry out profit-takingThis is the case for some mid-sized banks and some stocks that had accumulated significant gains. During the session, Unicaja, Sabadell, and CaixaBank registered declines that are generally interpreted more as a technical adjustment than a trend reversal.
Specifically, Unicaja has fallen by around 1,3%-1,4%.Meanwhile, Sabadell and CaixaBank closed with more moderate declines, around half a percentage point. After a year in which the financial sector has benefited from high interest rates and improved margins, the market is taking advantage of these final trading sessions to consolidate profits.
Other values such as Indra, IAG, Mapfre, Puig, Ferrovial or Grifols They have also shown weaker performance, with moderate declines in most cases. In the previous session, the most significant drops within the Ibex were concentrated precisely in these companies, reflecting a certain portfolio rotation before the end of the year.
Even so, the overall balance for the index remains clearly positive. The increasing weight of infrastructure, energy, renewables, and internationally diversified companies has allowed to compensate for occasional fluctuations in banking or tourism. This sectoral balance has been one of the keys to the strength shown by the Ibex 35 throughout 2025.
In the medium term, analysts will continue to monitor whether, after this intense rally, the index can sustain levels above 17.000 points or whether, on the contrary, a longer period of consolidation will be necessary. For now, the fact that the 17.200 point mark is so close It encourages those who believe the index can still extend its gains a bit further before the end of the year.
Europe is advancing with mixed signs and low volume
The European context has been relatively benign for equities, but without major upheavals. The main stock exchanges in the Old Continent have registered narrow movementsWith slight advances in most indices and slight declines in some cases, in a session that has been clearly influenced by the proximity of the holidays and by the attention focused on the geopolitical situation.
In the central block, the The German DAX and the French CAC 40 have gained around 0,05% and 0,10%, respectively.respectively, while the EuroStoxx 50 gained approximately 0,1%. London and Milan performed somewhat more differently: the British FTSE 100 finished virtually flat or with slight losses, while the Italian FTSE MIB fell by about 0,4%. In other recent sessions, however, Milan, Frankfurt, and London have even closed in positive territory with gains of less than 0,25%.
Overall, it is a typical year-end sessionThe European market is maintaining its tone, but without the intensity of previous months. Investors are keeping a close eye on several fronts: from the future trajectory of inflation and interest rates to the economic implications of trade tensions between major blocs, such as China's latest measures in the form of new tariffs on European Union products. This comparison places the Ibex compared to the European stock market as a recurring element of analysis.
Specifically, announcements have been made from Beijing. additional tariffs on European dairy productsclaiming that these products arrive in the country with subsidies and that this harms the local industry. Furthermore, Chinese authorities have opened investigations into the import of pork and brandy from the EU. Many analysts interpret these moves as a response to European measures on Chinese electric vehicles, which adds a new chapter to the protectionist escalation.
In this scenario, Spain maintains a relatively solid economic growth rateSpain's GDP grew by 0,6% in the third quarter, just one-tenth of a percentage point less than in the previous quarter, with a positive contribution from domestic demand (1,3 percentage points) offsetting the drag from the external sector. The Bank of Spain has revised its forecasts upwards, placing GDP growth at around 2,9% this year and also improving its estimates for 2026 and 2027.
Geopolitics and peace in Ukraine, at the center of the radar
Beyond macroeconomic data, one of the factors having the greatest influence on the markets in these final days of the year is the geopolitics, with the conflict in Ukraine as the main focusEuropean stock markets have closely followed the news about the negotiations to try to reach a peace agreement to end the war with Russia.
The focus has been placed on the meeting held in Florida between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky Over the weekend, relatively optimistic messages emerged from the talks. Both the US and Ukrainian presidents spoke of a potential agreement to end the war being “very close,” although they acknowledged that “one or two very thorny issues” remain to be resolved, including the future of the Donbas region and the conditions for a possible ceasefire.
Following that meeting, the White House reported a “Positive” call between Trump and Vladimir PutinThe talks reportedly addressed the next steps to try to reduce tensions. However, the Russian government has accused Ukraine of launching a nighttime attack on President Putin's residence in the Novgorod region, prompting the Kremlin to announce it will "reconsider" its position in the negotiations.
This new surge in tension has resonated in commodity markets, especially in the Brent crude oil, the benchmark in EuropeCrude oil, which had been correcting for several days, reacted with gains of over 2% following the latest statements from Moscow, rising again above $60 a barrel. Many analysts directly attribute this movement to increased uncertainty in Eastern Europe.
Other assets considered safe havens, such as gold, and those linked to risk sentiment, such as Bitcoin, have also shown significant swings in recent sessions. This behavior reflects the extent to which the markets, despite the positive tone in the stock market indices, remain highly sensitive to any news that could disrupt the current delicate geopolitical balance.
Debt, currencies, and the pulse of the Federal Reserve
In the fixed income markets, the day has been characterized by a slight drop in bond yieldsThis aligns with the feeling that major central banks may be nearing the end of their rate-hiking cycle. In the United States, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note is hovering around 4,10%, following several days of relief. In Europe, the German 10-year Bund is trading below 2,85%, while the equivalent Spanish bond has retreated to around 3,25%-3,28%.
Equities are finding some support in this moderation of long-term interest rates, especially in sectors with greater sensitivity to financing costssuch as real estate or utilities. Even so, investors are mindful that the absolute level of interest rates remains high compared to the last decade, forcing them to be selective when building portfolios.
The currency market has experienced a session of low volatilityThe euro remains stable around $1,17, with slight intraday fluctuations, while the pound sterling is hovering around $1,35. The EUR/USD pair attempted to consolidate above $1,177 after a failed attempt to break through to the $1,18 level, reflecting the single currency's difficulty in gaining further ground against the dollar.
In this scenario, all attention is focused on the us federal reserveThe S&P 500 reached new all-time highs last Friday, boosted by improved expectations surrounding monetary policy and the strong performance of major technology stocks, as well as banks and energy companies. The minutes from the Fed's latest meeting, in which it decided to cut interest rates for the third consecutive time, are scheduled to be released tomorrow.
Markets expect the minutes to offer clues about the pace and magnitude of possible future cutsThis will directly influence risk perception and the relative attractiveness of equities compared to fixed income. Furthermore, Trump himself has indicated that he will announce his nominee for Fed chairman before the end of the year, given that Jerome Powell's term ends in May 2026, adding another layer of intrigue to the monetary policy debate.
Commodities and cryptocurrencies: between volatility and records
The raw materials chapter has been marked by sharp movements in precious metals and energyGold, a traditional safe haven in times of uncertainty, experienced a highly volatile night that threatened the $4.500 per ounce mark. After reaching new highs in that area, the metal was subjected to significant profit-taking, which even drove it below $4.400 at times.
Silver has been another key player, with a drop of more than 10% Prices fell to around $71 per ounce, after having surpassed $80 in previous days, driven in part by speculative positions and fears of supply shortages. These corrections came after several weeks in which precious metals had gained appeal thanks to a combination of geopolitical tensions and expectations of lower borrowing costs.
In the case of Brent oilCrude oil, a European benchmark, has reacted positively after successfully defending the $60 per barrel support level during the recent correction. Recent news from Russia and the possibility of a shift in its stance in the Ukraine negotiations have acted as a catalyst for crude to resume its upward trend, reaching around $62.
Cryptocurrencies, for their part, also operate in an environment of high volatility but with very high levelsBitcoin is attempting to stabilize around $87.000-$90.000, with slight declines of 0,4% in recent hours, as it continues to try to break through its medium-term moving average. These levels demonstrate the extent to which risk appetite remains strong in some market segments, despite the general caution observed in other assets.
Meanwhile, other key indicators, such as US index futures or eurozone sovereign risk premiums, remain relatively subdued, suggesting that, at least for the time being, Investors are confident that the correction in safe-haven assets will not translate into a sharp change in sentiment. in equities.
Against this international backdrop, the Ibex 35 has managed to close another session in positive territory, consolidating a New all-time high nearing 17.200 points and face the final stretch of the year with almost 50% accumulated appreciation. In an environment of low volume, high sensitivity to geopolitical news, and anticipation of the next steps by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, the main Spanish index remains one of the protagonists of the stock market year, sustained by the strength of its blue-chip stocks and the positive state of the domestic economy.
