Despite this relative weakness, the index remains in the 17.400-17.600 point zoneThese are levels that many analysts still see as consistent with an underlying upward trend. The market, however, is moving with considerable sensitivity: any comment on Greenland, NATO, or new tariffs on the European Union This quickly translates into abrupt movements on the screens.
A week of swings for the Ibex 35
The start of the week was dominated by the most aggressive version of Donald Trump, with the threat of new tariffs to several European countries in response to resistance to ceding sovereignty over Greenland. This political standoff triggered risk aversion in international stock markets and dragged the Spanish index down. biggest drop in two months, with a decline of 1,34% that took the Ibex to the 17.420 point zone after having dropped almost 2% at the worst moments of the day.
In the early stages of the week, the index even It briefly broke through the 17.300 point mark., the level at which it had closed the previous year, wiping out in one fell swoop the gains made during the last annual rally. Even so, the market managed to stabilize relatively quickly: as messages leaked out that Washington would not resort to force and that an understanding with NATO was being explored, Sales gradually slowed down and the index recovered some of the lost ground.
Subsequently, the situation took a turn when Trump himself softened his tone in the Davos Economic Forum And he spoke of a framework agreement with the Atlantic Alliance on the future of Greenland. The withdrawal of the tariffs that were to come into effect at the beginning of February provided a real boost to European stock markets. The Ibex went from clearly trading in the red to closing some sessions with slight gains, around 1%. 0,06%, and to lessen a scare that, at other times, could have had deeper consequences.
However, despite the midweek rebound, the five days as a whole resulted in a cumulative decline of approximately 0,9%-0,94%This contrasts with the somewhat more solid performance of other indices such as the German DAX, which even managed to register a slight weekly increase of around 0,1%.
The general feeling on the Madrid stock exchange is that a normal correction has occurred within a broader upward trend, but The geopolitical noise has left its mark and continues to influence decision-making. In fact, several experts do not rule out more significant moves towards areas such as... 16.700-16.200 points In the event of renewed tension, this could be reinterpreted as a new opportunity to increase exposure to Spanish equities.
The performance of the major stocks in the Ibex 35
Within the index, not all sectors have reacted the same way to this cocktail of international uncertainty and macroeconomic data. One of the standout names of the week has been... Mapfre, Which reached plummet by almost 9% After receiving a negative recommendation from a major Swiss institution, the market has scrutinized the potential risks the insurer faces in a more complex global environment, amidst internal reorganization and with a new business model underway.
Companies with a more cyclical and energy focus have not escaped punishment either. Acciona Energía and Acciona They registered sharp declines, penalized both by the generally poor tone of the session and by the sector's sensitivity to movements in raw materials such as silver, relevant to part of the renewable energy value chain. Stocks such as Solariums y Cellnex They were also among the weakest, accompanied by declines in index heavyweights such as Iberdrola, Santander o BBVAalthough in these cases the declines were more moderate.
On the other hand, some companies managed to stand out from the general tone. Fluidra It led the gains with advances of nearly 2%, supported by a business model that allows it to mitigate some of the impact of tariff tensions by leveraging regional trade agreements such as the North American Free Trade Agreement. Other stocks such as R y Naturgy They were also among the few components of the Ibex that closed some sessions in positive territory, benefiting from selective inflows into defensive companies or those with specific exposure to certain markets.
On other days, the spotlight fell on the steelmakers. ArcelorMittal It recorded gains of over 5% following an improved recommendation and the announcement of price increases in various steel products in Europe, fueled by less tariff pressure from the United States. acerinoxThe US, heavily dependent on its business in the North American market, also benefited from this more constructive shift in the transatlantic trade relationship, registering significant progress when the political tone relaxed.
The tourism and air transport sector has not gone unnoticed either. IAGThe holding company that includes airlines such as Iberia and British Airways was among the worst-performing stocks in the index, with declines of around 2,3%This coincided with the rebound in Brent crude oil prices and an environment of heightened sensitivity towards everything related to travel and leisure. In contrast, Solariums It has even led the gains in some sessions, with increases of more than 3%, in a context of tactical rotation by investors towards renewables after the previous correction.
Macroeconomic data, central banks and geopolitics: the backdrop
Beyond the headlines about Greenland and NATO, the macroeconomic figures Indicators from the United States have played a significant role in the performance of the Ibex 35. Consumer confidence in the world's largest economy has rebounded to its highest level in five months, which in principle supports a still robust growth scenario. Even so, Wall Street indices have begun to show signs of weakness. a certain weariness after several years of double-digit increasesAnd the S&P 500 is on track for its first two-week losing streak since June.
In the realm of central banks, investors practically take it for granted that Federal Reserve The central bank will keep interest rates unchanged at its next meeting, with inflation still above the official target and no urgency to make any changes in the very short term. This outlook for stable rates, combined with growth that remains above expectations, continues to be reasonably favorable for equities, although it does require a more selective approach when choosing sectors and companies.
The geopolitical front continues to be a constant source of surprises. In addition to the Greenland issue, the call for a Trilateral meeting between Ukraine, Russia and the United States in Saudi Arabia, which could open the door to new avenues of diplomatic dialogue. Any progress in this area is usually interpreted positively by the markets, as it reduces the risk of significant shocks in key commodities such as gas or oil, with a direct impact on several companies listed on the Ibex 35.
In the market of raw materialsPrecious metals have once again taken center stage. Gold has reached new all-time highs, exceeding [amount missing]. $ 4.700 per ounceWhile silver has risen by nearly 7%, both gold and silver have been driven by the search for safe havens in the face of potential trade wars and by structural factors such as rising global debt, central bank purchases, and a weaker dollar. This movement benefits companies involved in metal extraction and production, but could increase costs in sectors like renewables, where certain components are heavily dependent on these inputs.
In continental Europe, the main stock exchanges have followed a similar pattern to Spain's, albeit with some nuances. German DAX and Italian MIB have registered declines of close to 1% on the most difficult days, while the French CAC It has managed to better contain losses in several sessions, even posting slight gains when political tensions eased. Overall, the region is, according to some analysts, halfway between its buying zones and short-term bullish targets, with a increasingly balanced risk-reward relationship.
Business results and opportunities in the Spanish stock market
Alongside these macro and geopolitical movements, the season of business results has been gaining weight in the Ibex 35. Entities such as Bankinter They kicked off the earnings season with figures that, while generally well-received, failed to fully convince the stock market. The bank has seen its customer and intermediation margins shrink, but has managed to offset some of that pressure with a higher volume of loans, which has allowed it to maintain its net interest margin.
One of the points most closely watched by investors has been the loss of market share in the mortgage market This is a consequence of the intense price competition within the institution. This strategy of prioritizing portfolio quality over more aggressive growth may have short-term repercussions, but it also helps to keep delinquency rates under control and reduce the risk of negative surprises if the economic cycle worsens.
In the world of large Spanish listed companies, there have also been significant headlines related to RepsolAfter an international arbitration tribunal ruled against the oil company in a dispute related to a liquefied natural gas contract, the company's share price fell. The ruling requires the company to cover the costs of the proceedings and has dealt a temporary blow. However, the market seems to interpret this episode more as a reminder of the legal risks associated with a highly diversified global portfolio than as a substantial change in the outlook for its core business.
Also on the table are potential corporate moves, especially in the telecommunications and energy sectors. There has been talk of Potential operations such as the purchase of assets in Spain by large operators and the growing interest of certain funds in increasing their stakes in companies like Naturgy. These movements, although still subject to much speculation, help to keep investor focus on some specific Ibex stocks.
In this context, there are analysis firms that, despite the recent volatility, continue to see buying opportunities in a handful of companies in the index and the Spanish continuous market, especially those with solid balance sheets, exposure to diversified economies and the ability to pass on a reasonable portion of inflation to prices without losing competitiveness.
A selective system sensitive to each headline
The sequence of events over the last few days makes one thing quite clear: the Ibex 35 It has become highly sensitive to every twist in the political and economic landscape. A few words about tariffs or trade agreements are enough to change the tone of the session, shifting from declines of nearly 2% to slight gains and vice versa. This dynamic encourages individual investors to exercise extreme caution when reacting to the day's headlines.
In times like these, focusing solely on short-term noise can be misleading. The Spanish index continues to be supported by relatively constructive background factors, such as corporate profits that continue to show resilience, an interest rate environment that, although restrictive, appears to be close to its peak and a European economy that, despite the challenges, has not entered a scenario of widespread recession.
At the same time, the market is keeping a close eye on certain remaining risks: episodes of tension between the United States and the European Union, the evolution of conflicts such as the one in Ukraine, the possibility of further energy shocks, and the potential impact of a more pronounced slowdown in global growth. All these elements are gradually being factored into valuations and explain why The indices now move with less room for disappointment..
For investors with a longer-term horizon, this period can be interpreted as a consolidation phase in which the Ibex 35 adjusts expectations and digests previous gains. The key, according to many analysts, lies in combining a structural vision on the Spanish and European economy with good tactical risk management, avoiding hasty decisions based solely on the daily fluctuations caused by Trump's latest message or the current macroeconomic data.
After a week marked by volatility, geopolitical uncertainty, and conflicting signals from Wall Street and the rest of Europe, the Ibex 35 remains in a relevant support zone and once again demonstrates that, despite short-term shocks, it continues to be a useful barometer of Spain's economic and financial pulse, provided it is analyzed with some perspective and without being overly swayed by the noise of the moment.
