For those with a variable-rate mortgage, these fluctuations translate into changes in their monthly payments. The difference between the current Euribor rate and that of a year ago (2,079% in July 2025) means that annual reviews are becoming more expensive , with increases that can exceed €50 per month on an average loan. Below, we analyze the most recent data, the factors behind this trend, and what mortgage holders can expect.
Current value of the Euribor in July 2026
The daily 12-month Euribor rate fluctuated throughout July. It opened at 2,727% on July 1st, and after several days of ups and downs, settled at 2,800% on July 13th. The provisional monthly average, calculated using data available up to that date, is 2,749%, slightly below the June closing rate (2,798%) but above the May average (2,804%). Over the past seven days, the index has fluctuated between 2,693% and 2,831% , reflecting market uncertainty.
Compared to previous months, a stabilization trend is observed at levels close to 2,7-2,8%, following the declines recorded in 2024 and early 2025. The average for July 2025 was 2,079%, representing a difference of almost 0,7 percentage points. This year-on-year increase is directly impacting variable-rate mortgage payments, which are adjusted using the July reference rate.
Factors that influence the evolution of the Euribor
The main driver of the recent price increases has been the breakdown of peace negotiations between the United States and Iran . According to several sources, Donald Trump's announcement of the end of the treaty and the subsequent attacks have heightened uncertainty in financial markets, putting upward pressure on the Euribor. In just two days, the index rose from below 2,7% to above 2,8%, a movement that analysts directly link to the escalation of the conflict.
Furthermore, the European Central Bank's monetary policy remains a key factor. Although the ECB is maintaining official interest rates at 2% after the 25 basis point increase in June, expectations of future decisions are influencing interbank operations . Contained inflation in the eurozone has reduced pressure for further increases, but geopolitical uncertainty could alter this scenario.
Impact on mortgages
For households with variable-rate mortgages, the rise in the Euribor translates into higher monthly payments. Taking as an example a €150.000 loan over 25 years with a spread of Euribor + 1%, the annual review using the July figures would mean an increase of around €50 per month , equivalent to more than €600 per year. This calculation is based on the difference between the current Euribor (around 2,75%) and the Euribor in July 2025 (2,079%).
Those who review their mortgage every six months notice an even greater impact, as the cumulative increase is more pronounced. In any case, the stabilization of the index at these levels offers some predictability , although experts warn that its evolution will depend on how international tensions are resolved. For new mortgages, the range of fixed, mixed, and variable-rate products remains broad, with spreads ranging from 0,49% to 1% for variable rates, and fixed rates starting at 2,55%.
The monthly average of the Euribor in recent months shows a sideways trend: June 2026 closed at 2,798%, May at 2,804%, April at 2,747%, and March at 2,565%. This trend suggests that the index has stabilized in a range between 2,5% and 2,8% , far from the 2023 highs (above 4%) but also above the 2021 lows.
In short, the Euribor for July 2026 reflects a precarious balance between geopolitical pressure and monetary policy moderation. Those with variable-rate mortgages should prepare for higher monthly payments than last year, although without the shocks of 2023. The key will be the evolution of the conflict in the Middle East and the ECB's upcoming decisions, which will determine the index's direction in the coming months.
