The evolution of Public debt It returns to the forefront with figures that, in the Spanish and European case, show a disparate performance compared to other major economies. In our country, the combination of nominal growth, spending restraint, and improved revenues is allowing reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio since the peaks reached after the pandemic.
Meanwhile, some of its partners and international benchmarks face a more demanding dynamic: France grapples with high public spending and substantial debt, while the United States faces higher financing costs and recurring political tensions over the debt ceiling. This scenario, with its positive and negative aspects, conditions access to markets and the tax plans in the medium term.
Spain and France: two diverging paths
The comparison with France raises several key points: French public spending around the 57% of GDPabout 12 points above the spending share in Spain. In terms of debt, France will end the year close to 116% of GDP (109,8% in 2023), while Spain remains slightly above 100%, a level that, although high and higher than that of most advanced economies, It is down from 115,6% in 2021.
In the Spanish case, the decrease in the debt-to-GDP ratio It is supported by strong nominal GDP growth since 2021 (close to 28,8%) and in the reduction of the primary deficit, which has gone from 4,5% of GDP in 2021 to a virtually balanced budget projected for 2025. This is aided by some public revenues which have advanced 27,2% in the 2021-2024 period, compared to more moderate spending (+16% excluding interest and extraordinary items such as those associated with the DANA).
The gradual withdrawal of measures to mitigate rising energy costs also helps to balance the books. Based on budget execution figures, the public deficit stood at 3,2% of GDP in 2024 and is expected to fall below the 2,8% target in 2025. In contrast, France would be in the region of 5,5% of GDP, reflecting more persistent tensions.
Another key element is the financing structure. Spain took advantage of the years of central bank purchases to extend maturities and maintains a average life in circulation close to 8 yearsAs of August 2025, 33,9% of new emissions had a maturity of one year or less (31,3% one year earlier), and the average maturity of 2025 emissions stood at 6,6 years (compared to 7,2 years in the first eight months of 2024). Despite this slight adjustment in new placements, the average life of the stock remains stable; in France, a slight reduction of the average life.
It is important not to lose sight of the international context: approximately the 75% of developed economies It has lower debt levels than Spain. Even so, the gap with France and the improvement in the primary deficit reinforce the interpretation that Spain's recent trajectory has been relatively more favorablewith the challenge, of course, of maintaining this path when monetary policy remains normalized.
The international mirror: The United States and sustainability
The US benchmark provides useful clues about long-term sustainability. Over the past decade, US federal debt has increased by around 20 points of GDP, reaching a peak in 2020. Although it subsequently declined, consensus suggests that the The debt-to-GDP ratio will rise again. during the forecast horizon.
In fact, several panels place the debt in the region of 127% of GDP in 2028 (with more pessimistic estimates near 133%). This rebound would come from average deficits of around 6% of GDP, higher than those of Canada, the the euro areaJapan or the United Kingdom (0%-3%), pressured by aging and health spending, and by a limited political appetite to raise taxes or cut spending.
The US has supporting factors: long-term real growth around 2% per year (compared to 1,5% in the eurozone and the UK), the safe-haven status of its bonds and the role of dollar as a reserve currency. This maintains external demand for Treasuries, but does not offset the higher financial costs caused by high yields.
Debt servicing has become significantly more expensive, and according to analysts' estimates, interest payments could approach a 4,6% of GDP in 2025 before moderating to 3,4% in 2028, figures clearly above pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, the debt ceiling—set in nominal terms—cyclically returns to political debate, with the consequent risk of locks in the broadcast.
Overall, the market continues to have confidence in US solvency in the short and medium term thanks to its credibility and financial depth. However, allowing debt to grow unchecked and subjecting it to recurring political episodes can erode fiscal space over time, a warning that European economies, including Spain, are closely monitoring. to reinforce their anchors of sustainability.
The picture these figures paint is clear: Spain is making progress in fiscal consolidation and debt maturity management, France faces more intense pressures, and the United States combines structural strength with cost and institutional tensionsMaintaining dynamic revenues, selective spending, and a prudent issuance strategy will remain crucial for Spanish debt to continue decreasing in relative terms. withstand better the phase of higher interest rates.
