Luis de Guindos's tenure in Frankfurt comes to an end this Sunday, concluding an eight-year period that has proven to be a veritable rollercoaster ride for the European economy. The former Spanish Minister of Economy leaves his office on the 40th floor of the European Central Bank tower with the satisfaction of having kept the economy afloat. financial stability of the eurozone In times when a quiet week was rare. From the outbreak of a pandemic that paralyzed the world to the price increases resulting from conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, the overall assessment is that of an institution that has weathered storms without the system collapsing.
In his latest statements, the Madrid-based economist has not hidden his pride in the resilience shown by European banks, highlighting that they have not experienced major financial catastrophes Despite the fact that the environment has been, to say the least, hostile. Now that it's time to pack up and look to the future, the landscape he leaves behind remains full of dark clouds, with one eye on... interest rates and the ECB's caution And another in the geopolitical tensions that threaten to shake up the global economic landscape again just when things seemed to be calming down.
A changing of the guard with a Balkan flavor and new academic directions
The vice-presidency now passes to Boris Vujcic, a man who comes from leading the central bank of Croatia and who has the backing of European institutions for this new endeavor. official transfer of power This represents the arrival of a highly experienced individual to the Governing Council, someone who is intimately familiar with the intricacies of monetary policy. Meanwhile, Guindos is already preparing his return to Spain to immerse himself in the academic world, where he will hold a professorship at Comillas University and collaborate with IESE Business School, a way of continuing his work. closely linked to current economic affairs but from a much less stressful barrier than Frankfurt.
However, this change leaves Spain in a somewhat delicate position, as the country is, for the time being, without a seat on the ECB's exclusive Executive Board. Although there has been much talk about whether the current political situation in Madrid could have repercussions, the truth is that the strength of the Spanish economy And its status as the fourth largest economy in the Eurozone are compelling arguments for regaining that position in the upcoming renewals. Names are already circulating strongly in Brussels, such as that of Pablo Hernández de Cos, who boasts an impeccable international reputation that could position him for even more senior roles in the not-too-distant future.
Latent risks and the eternal debate on banking union
Not all farewells are amicable; Guindos is leaving with a warning about market complacency. The former vice president has cautioned that there is a exuberance that could lead to adjustments sudden price swings, especially if investors continue to ignore the looming fiscal and macroeconomic risks. The message is clear: we must not let our guard down, because the cost of living and economic growth continue to be closely tied to what happens with the oil crisis and energy supply and the decisions of the US administration, which raise a scenario of global uncertainty hard to ignore.
For the single currency to be truly strong, the Spanish banker insists that we cannot leave the construction of the banking union unfinished. Even though the supervisory mechanisms are working, that crucial element is missing. common deposit guarantee scheme This would provide definitive peace of mind to citizens. In his view, now that European banks are healthy and enjoying significant profits, it is the ideal time for politicians to stop hesitating and finally complete their outstanding tasks so that Europe does not fall behind other major powers.
Regarding the domestic situation, the analysis is bittersweet: Spain is growing strongly, but this growth is largely driven by population increase, while the Productivity remains the subject which always gets postponed until September. This lack of efficiency is what prevents wages from rising at the rate we would all like and, coupled with housing access problems, creates a bottleneck that past reforms have failed to resolve. Guindos thus concludes his international career by emphasizing that, although the storm has subsided, the European and Spanish economic structures still need a good overhaul and deep structural reforms to withstand the challenges that will almost certainly come in the coming years.
