The Spanish industry is experiencing a change in trend: the Industrial Price Index recorded a decrease in September year-on-year growth of 0,3%, leaving behind the summer setbacks. The figure returns industrial inflation to positive territory and serves as a reference for gauging the evolution of production costs in the final stretch of the year.
After the contraction of the previous month, which was -1,6%, the rebound is mainly explained by the behavior of the EnergyHowever, the picture is not uniform: the monthly reading remains negative, and excluding energy, prices remain slightly below zero, suggesting that cost pressures remain contained in many industrial sectors.
What's driving the rebound
The energy component has been decisive: its annual rate increased by 5,6 points and stood in the 0,6%Behind this turn are some prices of production, transportation and distribution of electricity which fell less than a year earlier and the rise in oil prices oil refining, which in September of last year were declining more sharply.
In other words, the energy has gone from braking to support the IPRI, acting as a counterweight to branches that are still showing weakness. This role of energy fits in with a more stable commodities market and less demanding year-on-year comparisons.
Evolution by industrial categories
Excluding the energy component, industrial inflation remains weak: the rate without energy stands at -0,1%, two-tenths above the previous month but still slightly negative. That is, the pressure from costs outside of energy remains contained.
Among the large groups, the progress of the non-durable consumer goods, which go up to the 0,8% annual. The impetus comes, above all, from the manufacturing of vegetable and animal oils and fats, with more marked increases than those of September last year.
The rest of the categories maintain a mixed tone: some branches of intermediate goods continue with moderate growth, while others are experiencing weak demand, which limits the transfer of costs to prices.
Monthly reading and change compared to summer
In the immediate comparison, industrial prices fell by 0,4% compared to August. This monthly decline coexists with the improvement in year-on-year terms, which rises 1,9 points compared to the previous record (from -1,6% to +0,3%).
This pattern—month-over-month declines but year-over-year increases—suggests that the “base effect” plays a relevant role: declines from a year ago are now less pronounced, while recent adjustments in the industrial chain continue to be noticeable in the monthly comparison.
This is how the autonomous communities behave
The rebound has not been uniform across territories: prices in the industry improved in 12 communities and they retreated in fourThe highest year-on-year rates are found in La Rioja (+3,1%), Canary Islands (+2,8%) y Principality of Asturias (+2,1%), driven by branches with greater energy exposure or by favorable base effects.
On the opposite side, the most negative rates correspond to Andalusia (-3,6%), Castilla-La Mancha (-1,1%) y Extremadura (-0,4%)These differences respond to the sectoral composition of each region and the different intensity with which the cost adjustments have been transferred to prices.
Key indicators for September
To put the data into context, these are the main markers of the month, with energy as a lever for change and a basis for comparison that favors a return to positive rates in the annual aggregate.
| Concept | Rate | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| IPRI (year-on-year) | + 0,3 % | Back to positive after the -1,6% in August |
| Energy (year-on-year) | + 0,6 % | Increase of 5,6 points for electricity and refining |
| IPRI without power | -0,1% | Slightly negative, with improvement of two tenths |
| monthly variation | -0,4% | Decline compared to August in an environment of cost adjustment |
With this picture, the industry faces the last quarter with a more balanced cost inflation: energy sustains the aggregate, while the rest of the branches advance more gradually. The evolution of energy prices and external demand will set the pace for the coming months.
