Confirmation of a inflation of 2,8% in December 2025 The official exchange rate finalized the target for the wholesale dollar in February 2026 under the new exchange rate band system. Although the price figure came in slightly higher than analysts' forecasts, it remained within the market's acceptable range and became the key parameter for recalibrating the exchange rate limits.
With this scheme, the Central Bank of the Argentine Republic (BCRA) It leaves behind the fixed 1% monthly adjustment. and it shifts to a model in which the floor and ceiling of the band move at the same rate as official inflationBut with a two-month delay. This change redefines the exchange rate's room for maneuver in February and also shapes expectations for the following months.
What will the exchange rate band look like in February?
The Indec data for December, with an increase of 2,8% in the Consumer Price IndexThis determines that in February the exchange rate band will shift by the same proportion. According to official calculations and private estimates, The upper limit of the wholesale dollar at the end of February will be around $1.607-$1.608, depending on the exact methodology used for rounding.
In parallel, The BCRA's intervention floor will be close to $869This creates a fairly wide band for the exchange rate to fluctuate without requiring immediate intervention from the monetary authority. The so-called "non-intervention zone" is updated daily, but always with the aim of completing, throughout the month, the adjustment equivalent to the inflation of two months ago.
Up until the end of January, the band had started with reference values ​​of $914,78 for the lower limit and $1.529,03 for the upper limitwhich, with the planned daily adjustment, will end the month around $894,10 and $1.563,51respectively. Based on that, and applying the 2,8% inflation rate for December, the new February ceiling is projected to be close to $1.607-$1.608 per dollar.
In practice, this means that, with the The wholesale dollar is currently trading in the $1.457-$1.461,5 range.The exchange rate has a margin of increase of around 10% before reaching the upper limit of the band. At that point, the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) would have the power to sell reserves to contain excessive pressure on the exchange rate.
From 1% monthly to inflation indexation
The exchange rate floating band regime was established in April 2025. after the removal of currency controls, with an initial corridor for the wholesale dollar that went from $1.000 as a floor to $1.400 as a ceilingUnder that design, the ends of the band were adjusted at a predetermined rate of 1% per month, regardless of inflation.
That model allowed a signal to be given gradualness and predictability in the exchange rateBut as the months went by, it began to show limitations. As the monthly devaluation fell below inflation, The band's ceiling began to be appreciated in real terms., something that various analysts warned as a potential source of future instability.
Faced with this scenario, the BCRA decided that, starting from January 1, 2026Both the floor and the ceiling would be updated in line with the inflation reported by INDEC, with a two-month lag. In this way, The dollar is no longer moving below the pace of prices and goes on to replicate, with a certain lag, the variation of the CPI, introducing an explicit indexation component into the exchange rate scheme.
According to the Central Bank itself, the stated objective of this change is reduce the risk of extreme and abrupt movements of the exchange rate, while preventing the band's value from being "suppressed" in real terms. The entity insists that the bands not only bring order to the market, but also They function as a reference point for the transition to a higher float regime.
From the economists' point of view, however, the shift implies a less emphasis on disinflationConsulting firms like Equilibra point out that the 1% monthly adjustment would, over time, lead to a real appreciation of the peso that could become unsustainable until the 2027 elections. But they also note that index the bands to past inflation It can contribute more inertia to prices, insofar as the exchange rate ceases to act as a nominal anchor.
Inflation, expectations and the projection of the band beyond February
The December data not only determines the February update; it also serves as input for recalibrate expectations for the remainder of 2026Although 2,8% represents the second highest monthly inflation of the year, the accumulated inflation of 31,5% in 2025 It marked the lowest annual figure in the last eight years, a milestone that the Government did not hesitate to highlight.
Looking ahead to March, the market takes as a reference point the Market Expectations Survey (REM) projectionsThe survey is conducted by the Central Bank itself in conjunction with consulting firms and banks. Based on these forecasts, The upper limit of the band could be around $1.639 by the end of March, based on the estimated inflation for January and the two-month lag mechanism that governs the scheme.
In this context, the price path becomes the determining variable of the space the dollar will have to move within the band. Higher inflation widens the margin in pesos of the "non-intervention zone", while more pronounced disinflation would reduce the speed of adjustment of the permitted exchange rate.
Despite the rise in the February ceiling, No immediate tensions are anticipated in the exchange rate market.Quotes in futures contracts show expected values ​​for the end of January and February below the official upper limits, suggesting that, at least in the short term, traders are not discounting a sharp jump in the dollar.
To reinforce this dynamic, the BCRA complements the band regime with exchange rate-adjusted peso-denominated hedging instruments, such as dollar-linked bonds, and with a rate policy that, according to analysts, tends to remain somewhat above what was initially expected in order to discourage speculative behavior.
Central Bank intervention and reserve accumulation
The new exchange rate band in February coexists with a ambitious program of international reserve accumulation which the Central Bank implemented on January 1, 2026. The official strategy consists of taking advantage of the times when the dollar remains comfortably within the band to buy foreign currency in the Free Exchange Market (MLC), without putting excessive pressure on the exchange rate.
Since the beginning of the year, and particularly from the January 5The monetary authority then strung together several consecutive days of net purchases. Various reports agree that, in that initial phase, The BCRA added around USD 270-330 million, with a daily average that ranged between 40 and almost 47 million dollars, depending on the period considered.
Thanks to these operations and the impact of the international price of gold, the Central Bank's gross foreign currency position It benefited. Official data indicate that gross reserves grew by around $372 million and they were located near the $44.768 millionalso supported by the appreciation of gold assets, which reached historic highs above USD 4.600 per ounce.
The Government projects that, if this purchasing trend continues and no major external shocks occur, Foreign currency purchases throughout 2026 could range between USD 10.000 billion and USD 17.000 billion.The final result will depend on the evolution of the balance of payments, the supply of commercial and financial dollars, and, above all, the demand for pesos in the economy.
In the words of the Central Bank president, Santiago BausiliThe rate of reserve accumulation will be almost exclusively conditioned by the remonetization of the economyThat is, by how much the preference of agents for holding assets in local currency increases. With moderate remonetization, BCRA technicians estimate that the The monetary base could increase from 4,2% to 4,8% of GDP towards the end of the year, without jeopardizing exchange rate stability.
Risks, benefits, and debates surrounding the new scheme
The decision to index the exchange rate band to past inflation opened a debate among economists about the risks and benefits of the systemFrom the official side, it is emphasized that the new mechanism It prevents an excessive real appreciation of the exchange rate.It corrects accumulated imbalances and reduces the likelihood of having to apply abrupt corrections later on.
For the market, one of the advantages is that The update rule is now more transparentThe floor and ceiling of the wholesale dollar move at the same pace as the inflation published by Indec, with a two-month lag, which helps to anchor expectations and facilitates decision-making by companies and investors.
However, various analysts warn that Indexation can also reinforce inflationary inertia.By replicating the price increases of previous months in the band, there is a risk of maintaining a cycle in which past inflation conditions the future exchange rate, and this, in turn, influences the prices of goods and services, especially tradable goods.
Consulting firms like Equilibra argue that the previous scheme, with a 1% monthly adjustment in the bandWhile it did generate an appreciation of the peso in real terms, it necessitated a gradual correction that could contribute to disinflation. In contrast, the new system prioritizes avoid a currency lag in a context where the goal of lowering inflation could become more demanding.
At the same time, the monetary authority insists that will retain the power to intervene at its discretion If it detects episodes of excessive volatility, even when the dollar remains within the non-intervention zone. In this way, the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) seeks to combine the discipline imposed by a rule with the flexibility needed to respond to unforeseen shocks.
With the February exchange rate band now practically defined by December's inflation, the Argentine foreign exchange market is entering a stage in which the evolution of prices and the ability to accumulate reserves These will be the two main indicators for assessing the scheme's strength. The behavior of the wholesale dollar in the coming weeks, the response of peso demand, and the trajectory of inflation will determine whether the system achieves its central objective. to provide predictability to the exchange rate without unleashing new tensions on prices.