El 12-month EuriborThe benchmark, a key reference for millions of mortgages in Spain, faces the final stretch of 2025 moving within a relatively narrow range, around the 2,25% - 2,30%After several months of slight increases, the index is back at levels higher than those of the summer, but still below those recorded a year ago.
This behavior is having a direct effect on families with mortgages. Who They review their loan with reference to the Euribor. Those who are twelve months old are still noticing some relief in the quotaMeanwhile, those whose interest rates are updated every six months are beginning to face somewhat heavier revisions. All of this is happening in an environment where the European Central Bank (ECB) has opted to keep official rates stable, sending a message of calm to the market.
Daily and average Euribor for December: this is how the index is moving
In the last working days of December, the daily Euribor It is very close to 2,26%., chaining together small oscillations that reinforce the feeling of relative stability that dominates the interbank market.
For instance, On December 24, 2025, the daily Euribor stood at 2,259%.6 thousandths less than in the previous session (2,265%). A few days earlier, on December 22, the index had risen 2,269%, just 0,003 points above the previous day. These are very moderate movements that contrast sharply with the sharp swings seen in previous years.
Looking at the month as a whole, the The provisional average for December is around 2,270% – 2,271%.This data is especially relevant for the variable mortgagessince it is the one used as a reference in many annual reviews. Furthermore, everything indicates that December will become the fifth consecutive month of promotionsconsolidating a gentle upward trend after the correction phase that dominated the first half of the year.
Despite this recent uptick, the Euribor remains clearly below the levels of December 2024, when the monthly average hovered around 2,436%In year-on-year terms, the index has accumulated a drop of close to 0,17 tenths, enough to continue generating small savings for many mortgage holders, although much less noticeable than those seen a few months ago.
Evolution of the Euribor in 2025: from correction to new stability
The behavior of the The 12-month Euribor rate throughout 2025 has been irregular.alternating significant declines in the first part of the year with a moderate recovery since the summer.
The index started January around 2,525%still heavily influenced by the ECB's interest rate hikes of recent years. From there, it experienced several months of adjustment: February closed around 2,407%, March at 2,398%, April at 2,143%, and both May and June closed around 2,081%. July marked the annual low at around 2,079%.which allowed a significant relief for variable-rate mortgages that were checked in that section.
From August onwards, however, the trend reversed. The Euribor began to rise again towards the 2,114% in August, 2,172% in September and 2,187% in October. November confirmed this change in tone by closing in 2,217%This marks the fourth consecutive month of increases. December is on track to become the... fifth month of growth, with a provisional average of around 2,27%.
In summary, 2025 has been a year marked by an initial phase of declines and a second phase of some rebound.But within a much more contained range than in 2023. The index has moved between approximately 2,08% and 2,53%, which has allowed families and financial institutions to plan with greater predictability in the face of recent periods of strong volatility.
What is the Euribor and why does it have such a significant impact on mortgages?
El Euribor (Euro Interbank Offered Rate) It is the interest rate at which a group of large banks in the eurozone are willing to lend money to each other in the interbank market. It is calculated from proposals submitted by a panel of institutions and is published every weekday around 11:00 a.m.
In practice, this index has become the main benchmark for setting the interest rate of variable and many mixed mortgages in Spain. The usual formula This involves adding the 12-month Euribor rate to a fixed spread set by each bank. For example, with a Euribor rate of 2% and a spread of 1%, the applicable rate for the loan would be 3%.
The key for households is that Mortgage reviews are not carried out using the specific daily data, but rather the monthly average corresponding to the reference month.Thus, if a mortgage is reviewed using the December Euribor rate each year, what matters is not the specific rate on any given day, but the average for the entire month.
Since the beginning of the century, the The 12-month Euribor has established itself as the key index for the Spanish mortgage market.. It is estimated that around three-quarters of outstanding mortgages They have been historically referenced to this indicator, which explains why any small variation has direct repercussions on the finances of millions of families.
Current impact on mortgages: who wins and who loses
The combination of a Euribor stabilized in the low 2% range and a ECB official interest rates unchanged has produced a mixed scenario for the different profiles of mortgage holders.
On one hand, Variable-rate mortgages with annual reviews continue to benefit from a slightly lower Euribor than twelve months ago.Taking as a reference a standard mortgage of €150.000 over 25 years, with a 1% spread, the drop from a Euribor rate close to 2,436% in December of last year to a provisional average of around 2,27% implies a reduction in the monthly payment of just over ten euros. We are talking about Savings of around 12-13 euros per month, or approximately 150-200 euros per year, according to standard industry calculations.
In the case of larger loans, for example 300.000 euros at the same timeThe monthly discount can be around 25 euros, which translates to about 300 euros per year. This is a modest but significant improvement compared to the price increases experienced during the period of most sharp price hikes.
In contrast, They are beginning to notice the upward shift of the last few monthsThose who updated their loan in the summer with a Euribor close to the year's lows and are now facing a higher monthly average will see their installments rise slightly, breaking the streak of consecutive declines.
Even so, the lower volatility of the index has a significant positive effect: It allows you to plan your household finances with fewer surprises.For many households, knowing that the Euribor is moving within a relatively predictable range —around 2% and far from the peaks above 3% in 2023— translates into a sense of stability that had disappeared in recent years.
How the Spanish mortgage market has changed
The current Euribor scenario has also reshaped the preferences of homebuyers. After a period of very low interest rates that favored variable-rate mortgages, the shift in European monetary policy has pushed consumers towards options that offer greater long-term certainty.
Recent data from intermediaries and specialized portals point in the same direction: Fixed-rate mortgages have once again taken the lead. as the most in-demand product. Around six out of ten new mortgage holders opt to secure a constant interest rate throughout the life of the loan, accepting slightly less flexibility in exchange for fixed monthly payments.
In parallel, mixed mortgages These mortgages have also gained popularity. They combine an initial fixed-rate period—for example, five or ten years—with a subsequent variable-rate phase linked to the Euribor. Their appeal lies in the fact that they offer some protection against index fluctuations in the early years, often the most financially sensitive for households, while allowing them to benefit from potential future declines.
The pure variable mortgagesIn contrast, fixed-rate mortgages have lost ground. The proportion of buyers choosing them has decreased significantly compared to previous years, falling well below that of fixed-rate and mixed-rate mortgages. Many households prefer to avoid the uncertainty of a sudden fluctuation in their mortgage payments depending on how the Euribor rate evolves.
Euribor forecasts for 2026: stability with nuances
Looking ahead to 2026, the message from most research services and analysts is quite consistent: A collapse in the Euribor rate is not expected, nor a return to the near-zero levels of the past decade.but neither is it a new cycle of aggressive short-term price increases.
Various analysis firms place the 12-month Euribor in an approximate range between 2,05% and 2,30% for next year. The most conservative projections point to a stabilized rate of around 2,25%-2,30%, provided that growth in the eurozone remains moderate and inflation does not rebound sharply. Other, somewhat more optimistic forecasts consider the possibility that the indicator could approach 2,05%-2,15% if inflation settles firmly within the ECB's target range.
In any case, the The central scenario for 2026 is a stable Euribor in the low 2% range.To see levels significantly lower than 2% would require a more intense cooling of the European economy or greater disinflationary pressures than those currently being considered, something that, as of today, is not the main hypothesis in most analyses.
This framework implies that Variable-rate mortgages should not become more expensive abruptly. Over the next few months, barring any external shocks, the expected adjustments would be gradual and relatively contained, a far cry from the sharp increases seen during the last major cycle of interest rate hikes.
Factors that could affect the Euribor in the coming months
Although the word that is repeated most often in the forecasts is stability, there are several elements to monitor closely because they could alter the behavior of the Euribor in the short and medium term.
The first is the inflation in the eurozoneIf core inflation remains above the 2% target for longer than expected, the ECB will have less room to ease its monetary policy. This would limit any further decline in the Euribor and could even keep it at somewhat higher levels.
Conversely, a more pronounced cooling of European growthWith particular attention to economies like Germany's, this could force the ECB to accelerate further interest rate cuts to support economic activity. In that scenario, the Euribor could fall a few tenths of a percent, although it is unlikely to return to the extreme lows seen before 2022 unless very exceptional circumstances arise.
Also still very present are risks linked to energy and geopoliticsA prolonged rise in gas or oil prices, or an intensification of tensions in certain regions, would have an almost immediate effect on inflation and, by extension, on interest rate expectations and the Euribor.
How are banks adapting to the new Euribor scenario?
With the Euribor settled in a relatively stable zone, competition between institutions is not so much focused on anticipating large movements in the index as on adjust differentials and commercial conditions to attract customers.
Brianda fixed mortgagesMany banks have taken advantage of the lower volatility to launch offers with interest rates in the area of ​​- or slightly above - 2% APR, especially for solvent profiles with a high degree of linkage (direct deposit of salary, insurance, cards, etc.).
The mixed mortgages They have been gaining prominence as an intermediate product. The initial fixed terms of 3, 5, or 10 years have been accompanied by competitive initial interest rates, in more than one case below 2% for much of the year, which has encouraged many buyers to opt for this option.
In parallel, the entities are showing a greater selectivity when granting fundingRising housing prices and the increased capital required necessitate a more refined creditworthiness assessment. Those with stable incomes and low debt continue to find reasonable terms, while households with irregular incomes or high debt burdens may encounter stricter requirements.
This combination of relatively predictable Euribor and more demanding risk criteria It paints a picture of a mortgage market that is less explosive than in other cycles, but also more orderly, in which prudence prevails on the part of both families and banks.
Against this backdrop, the Euribor consolidates its position as a key barometer of the health of the European mortgage marketIts current level, clearly below the 2023 peak but still far from the ultra-low rates of the last decade, suggests a scenario of normalization: somewhat more manageable monthly payments for many households, a certain advantage for those who review their mortgages annually, and favorable conditions for lenders to adjust their offerings smoothly. For those who already have a mortgage or are considering taking one out, closely monitoring the monthly evolution of the index will remain essential to making decisions with as much information as possible.
