La delinquency in personal loans and on credit cards It has become one of the clearest indicators of the financial strain households are experiencing. More and more families are making ends meet by resorting to consumer credit, refinancing balances, or simply defaulting on payments, which has driven default rates to unprecedented levels in over a decade.
The latest data from central bank They show that the percentage of household loans in a precarious situation continues to grow month after month. The deterioration is most markedly concentrated in the most common products used to cover current expenses, such as personal loans and credit cardswhile other segments such as mortgages are, for the moment, maintaining a much more stable behavior.
Record delinquency rate on loans to families
According to the last Central Bank Report on BanksThe loan default rate for households reached approximately 7,8% of the total financed, the highest level since records began in 2010. This spike is not a one-off: it follows a series of consecutive increases. ten to twelve consecutive months of increasesThis reflects a worrying underlying trend in households' ability to pay.
In year-on-year terms, the family delinquency has climbed more than 5 percentage pointsrising from levels around 2,7%-3,3% to this new all-time high. This means that, in a very short time, the proportion of loans with arrears exceeding 30 days has more than doubled or even tripled.
If we broaden our perspective to include the entire private sector—that is, households and businesses—the ratio of non-performing loans is around 4,5%-7% of total stockDepending on the time frame and the calculation methodology. In any case, these are also the highest figures in recent years, following a period of up to ten months of continuous increases.
The contrast between households and companies is striking: while families endure a default rate close to 8%-10%Credit to businesses registers considerably more contained rates, around 1,9%-5,6%Even so, a similar trend is also observed in the corporate segment. Uptrend that banks are watching closely.
Personal loans: almost one in ten in trouble
The area of ​​greatest tension is located in the personal loansA widely used product to finance everyday expenses, small renovations, studies, or to plug other financial holes, a situation that leads many to wonder How to find out if they are listed in ASNEFAccording to data from the Central Bank, the Delinquency rates for this type of loan are around 9,9%-10,1%. of the portfolio, which implies that practically one in ten personal loans presents some type of significant delay.
In just one year, the default rate on these loans has skyrocketed from levels close to 3,3% up to the area of 10%, which represents an increase of more than 6 percentage pointsIn some segments or regions, such as certain metropolitan areas, the percentages are even higher, consolidating personal expenses as the worst-performing consumer segment.
This deterioration coincides with a period in which the Credit to the private sector has expanded stronglyAfter years of contraction, some economists point out that, with the real volume of loans doubling, banks have broadened their offerings to include a wider range of borrowers. increased riskwhich, inevitably, ends up being reflected in higher default rates.
The situation is especially delicate for those who have repeatedly resorted to this type of financing to supplement insufficient incomeWhen installments are linked to high interest rates and salaries don't keep up, the probability of falling behind on payments increases significantly.
Credit cards: late payments on everyday expenses are on the rise
The tThese tools, often used to make ends meet or cope with unexpected expenses, also show a clear decline. late payment of credit card balances has climbed to a position around 7,7% of the total financed, after many months of successive increases.
Before this latest spike, the percentage of card payment delays hovered around 1,7%-2%, so the cumulative jump is around 6 percentage pointsIn practice, this means that more and more users are opting for refinance the balanceThey pay only the minimum or, directly, stop paying the installment, assuming interest far exceeding the expected inflation.
The mechanics are known: with salaries that fall short Faced with the rising cost of living, many families rely on credit cards for basic purchases, bills, or even rent. When debt snowballs and lenders apply high interest rates, the financial burden becomes difficult to manage and the likelihood of default skyrockets.
Meanwhile, some banks have begun to tighten the granting criteriareducing limits or analyzing payment capacity more rigorously, precisely because of the worsening portfolio quality indicators in this sensitive segment, recovering measures such as automatic debit to collect loans.
Mortgages and secured loans: more stable, but under scrutiny
Faced with the decline in pure consumer credit, loans with collateral, such as mortgages and secured loansThey currently show a somewhat more restrained behavior, although also with signs of tension in some specific niches.
Brianda MortgagesDelinquency remains around 1% of totalThis applies both to the traditional portfolio and to loans linked to price indicators. It is the only segment where the ratios remain relatively stable. stable over timeThis suggests that, despite the complex economic context, housing remains the last obligation that families neglect.
Los pawnshop loans Those loans secured by movable property, such as vehicles, present a somewhat more delicate situation. The delinquency rate is around 4,8%, the highest for the series that began in 2010, with increases exceeding 1 percentage point in the last year.
If only the loan portfolio adjusted for price indices is considered, the Family debt delinquency can exceed 6%.This reflects increased stress on products where the fee may have become more expensive due to inflation. Even so, the main focus of concern for the financial system remains the consumer credit without real guarantees.
Interest rate pressure and the loss of purchasing power
One of the key factors behind the increase in delinquency is the cost of moneyDuring much of the period analyzed, the annual nominal interest rate of personal loans was situated around the 83%, a very high level that significantly increases the cost of any financing intended for consumption.
After a few months marked by strong financial volatility and electoral processes, the tasas de interés They have moderated somewhat, dropping in some cases to the area of 66,5%However, they are still at levels that far exceed the expected inflationTherefore, the effort to repay debts remains very significant for a large part of households.
In parallel, the real wages have stagnated or fallen in many segments of the labor market. The combination of wages that are not keeping pace with the cost of living, precarious employment, and informal or part-time work means that a growing proportion of the population depends on credit to maintain their basic consumption levels and increases their debt ratio.
Some analyses also point to the expansion of credit as part of the explanation. Having doubled the real volume of loans to the private sector Compared to the lows of previous years, the system has been incorporating borrowers with higher risk of defaultThis tends to be reflected in the delinquency indicators with some delay.
Differences between households and businesses in access to and payment of credit
Although the rise in late payments affects both families and businesses, the impact is clearly more intense in the area of loans to individualsIn households, delinquency fluctuates in levels that are around or exceed 8%-10%, while in companies it remains at significantly lower figures.
In the business case, the payment irregularity in the total credit is around 1,9%-5,6%Depending on the type of loan and the reference point. The increases have been concentrated mainly in products such as pawn loans and certain short-term financing lines —for example, advances and documents—, which are widely used to cover treasury needs.
By sectors, the construction It appears as one of the activities with the greatest payment difficulties, with delinquency rates above the average, while other areas such as primary sector or public services They show more contained levels of non-payment.
Differences are also observed depending on the type of financial institution. national private banks They tend to concentrate higher delinquency indicators, while the foreign entities They tend to have somewhat healthier wallets. public banksFor their part, they tend to register a lower delinquency rate in loans to individuals, although with particularities depending on each market.
What might happen with late payments in the coming months?
The increase in defaults in personal loans and credit cards This comes after a period of strong credit expansion and very high interest rates. Now, with a somewhat lower but still high cost of money, the financial system is operating in a delicate balance between maintain the flow of funding and avoid excessive deterioration in the quality of their portfolios.
Some entities have opted to restrict part of their offer or tighten the requirements for granting new consumer loans, while others continue to focus on maintaining the business, but with much closer monitoring of customer payment behavior and applying the new code of good banking practices.
The future evolution of delinquency will depend to a large extent on factors such as employment dynamicswage negotiations, inflation stability, and the direction of the monetary and fiscal policiesIf household incomes continue to lag behind the cost of living and credit remains expensive, it is reasonable to expect that default rates will remain high or even climb further, and in extreme cases lead to processes such as... however without formal notification.
The current picture is that of a financial system that, despite maintaining some room to expand credit—especially when compared to other countries in the region where the ratio of loans to GDP is considerably higher—faces greater risks in the consumer segmentsFor many families, credit cards and personal loans have ceased to be a simple, occasional support and have become a permanent crutch; when the economy is tight, this dependence translates into More delays, forced refinancings, and increasing delinquencyAnd for some households, the alternative has been to resort to credits between individuals.
